I track deals for a living and these are my Black Friday 2023 predictions

Onn TV, AirPods Pro 2, Roomba J7 and Amazon Echo Show 10
(Image credit: Onn, iRobot, Apple and Amazon)

The biggest retail holiday of the year is right around the corner. I'm talking about Black Friday. What was once a 24-hour event, held on the Friday after Thanksgiving, has now grown into a multi-month monster that kicks off in October with Amazon's fall Prime Day event. 

This year marks my 16th year helping consumers find the best Black Friday deals. Over that stretch, I've learned where to find the best deals, when to expect them, and what sales to avoid. 

While every Black Friday is different, they all share the same DNA. So below I'm making my Black Friday predictions for 2023. These are the deals I'm most excited to see and the promos that may even tempt me to hit that buy button. I'm making these predictions based on previous Black Fridays as well as 2023's best deals. So pay attention: these are the deals I think you should take advantage of in the coming weeks. 

Black Friday Apple predictions

Apple iPhone 15 held in the hand.

(Image credit: Future)

Listen up, Apple fans. Black Friday is hands down the best time of year for Apple discounts. By late October/early November, Apple will have made all of its major product announcements for the year. As a result, retailers will be offering deals on current-gen devices as well as previous-gen products. As an Apple user myself, there are three retailers I follow closely when looking for the best Apple deals: Amazon, Best Buy, and B&H Photo. One thing to keep in mind: Avoid the Apple Store Black Friday sale. Retailers will offer better prices than Apple's predictable holiday sale. 

MacBook Air M2: One of my favorite Apple deals of 2023 came from Best Buy. It was the only retailer to offer the 13-inch MacBook Air M2 for $899, which is not only an amazing value, but the lowest price ever for this current-gen MacBook Air. There's a good chance we'll see it hit $849 in November, but it may come via a My Best Buy member-only deal. Other models like the 13-inch MacBook Air M1 and 15-inch MacBook Air M2 could hit $699 and $999, respectively. That would be $50 and $100 cheaper than their lowest price points for 2023. 

iPhone 15: The iPhone 15 will hit stores on September 22, but I'm already seeing iPhone 15 deals that offer Apple's new flagships for free. You'll have to jump through the usual hoops (trade-in your old phone and/or sign up for an unlimited plan), but you can expect to see freebie deals from now through the end of the year. Will iPhone 15 deals get better on Black Friday? If you don't plan on switching carriers, you might see better trade-in values or bundles come November, but deals won't be that drastically different than the ones I'm seeing now. 

Apple Watch: 2023 has been an epic year for Apple Watch deals. To date, the Apple Watch 8 has dropped to an all-time low of $279 (normally $399), whereas the Apple Watch SE 2022 has hit $199 (normally $249). Apple Watch 9 preorders are now live, but there aren't that many deals yet — I recommend waiting till October Prime Day. I predict that's when we'll see the first major discount on the Apple Watch 9, which could knock $50 off the base model. Expect this deal to come from Amazon, which is my go-to retailer for Apple Watch deals. (Best Buy sometimes price matches, but Amazon is always the first with deals). Meanwhile, the previous-gen Apple Watch 8 could hit a $279 or less price point as retailers try to sell off any leftover stock.  

AirPods: $69 AirPods anyone? Last year the AirPods dropped to $79 over the holiday season. It's likely they could hit $69 this year. They usually sell for $99 (even outside of major holidays), so I wouldn't pay anything over $99 for them. Meanwhile, the AirPods Pro 2 could hit $189 or less, which is a price point I've already seen in 2023.  

iPads: The 10.2-inch iPad hit $249 this past summer, which is an all-time price low for this tablet. Apple has yet to refresh its iPad line, but if new models are unveiled in October, you can expect to see modest discounts of up to $50 off base models. Models with high storage capacities could see larger discounts of $100 to $150 off. Amazon tends to offer the best iPad deals, so I advise keeping a close eye on them. 

Black Friday 4K TV predictions

LG A2 OLED TV review

(Image credit: Tom's Guide)

While it's true that you can find good TV deals any time of the year, the best are reserved for November and December. Black Friday TV deals are so amazing that last year I purchased my first OLED TV during a Black Friday sale. Here are the TV deals I'm looking forward to this year.  

4K TVs: Last year, 55-inch 4K TVs sold for as little as $188. Best Buy offered the best TV sales of the season. I think the retailer will hold on to that title once again with big-screen TVs from $179 and QLED TVs from $399. This past summer, Amazon offered its 43-inch Omni 4K Fire TV for $99, which broke all records as the cheapest 4K TV I've ever seen. However, it was a limited, invite-only deal. I expect to see similar invite-only offers from Amazon in October and November. 

One TV I'm especially eager to see on sale is the Roku Plus and Roku Select 4K series of TVs. They're already priced very affordably and in our Roku Plus Series 4K QLED TV review we called the Editor's Choice TV an outstanding value. The 55-inch Plus model has sold for $399 (originally $499), which is an epic price point for a TV we named the best budget TV of 2023. Meanwhile, I've been using the Select Series and while it lacks the QLED screen found in the Plus, it's still an amazing value and the smartest TV I've ever used. The 55-inch model normally costs $349, but could hit $249 or $299. 

OLED TVs: If you're looking for a premium TV experience, OLED TVs are where it's at. Last year, the 48-inch LG A2 hit an all-time price low of $569. It's a price I haven't seen since then, although the TV has sold for $599 a few times in 2023. Stock of the 48-inch LG A2 OLED has been a little trickier this year, so I don't see that TV selling for significantly less this year. Meanwhile, I expect to see mid-tier 55-inch OLED TVs — such as the LG B3 — sell from $899 or $999. Best Buy offered the best OLED TV deals last year and I expect them to be the king of OLED deals again this year. 

Black Friday home and kitchen predictions

Nectar premium hybrid Mattress

(Image credit: Nectar)

Mattresses: November is the absolute best month for mattress deals. Black Friday mattress deals offer prices that beat every holiday of the year by a landslide. Our favorite mattress sale from last year knocked the Editor's Choice Nectar Memory Foam mattress to $359 (twin) and $669 (queen). What really made this deal stand out is that the Nectar mattress holds a top spot in our best mattress guide. 

One big footnote on that deal — it wasn't really their Black Friday deal. Instead, it was a flash sale that knocked 33% off sitewide. It happened during the first weekend of November, which means you should keep your eyes peeled for similar flash sales this year. Note that the twin is now on sale for $359, but the queen is still locked at $699. Other brands like Casper and Tuft & Needle offered discounts that took 15% off sitewide. 

Kitchen appliances: From Ninja to KitchenAid, expect to see discounts on small and large kitchen appliances this holiday season. On the coffee front, Nespresso Black Friday deals dropped to $99 last year (50% off). Meanwhile, Keurig Black Friday deals hit a low of $79 for their budget K-Slim Coffee Maker. This past Prime Day, that same Keurig machine hit $49, which is the new low we think we'll see on Black Friday.

Other brands that usually see big price drops on Black Friday include KitchenAid (50% off) and Instant Pot. The latter will see devices as low as $59. 

PS5 and Xbox Series X Black Friday predictions

Ratchet & Clank shown on TV next to a PS5 console

(Image credit: Sony)

PS5: Buying a PS5 console should be a lot easier this year. Gone are the days of hunting for PS5 restock. On a few occasions, we've even seen a few noteworthy PS5 deals on Sony's console. Some of the bundles sell out fast, but I expect to see $50 off the PS5 Disc console and $50 off bundles, such as the PS5 with Final Fantasy XVI bundle. Controllers will also be on sale with prices from $49. If you already have a PS5 console, look for deals on PS5 SSDs. 1TB drives from Crucial, WD, and Samsung have sold for as low as $69 at Amazon and Best Buy. 

Xbox Series X: Xbox Series X deals are a little harder to come by. However, I expect to see deals as low as $469 from retailers like Amazon and Woot. Another retailer which tends to offer surprise Xbox Series X deals is Dell. The retailer has offered the console for as low as $474 bundled with a $75 gift card that you can use to buy PS5 games or accessories from Dell.  

Nintendo Switch OLED: I hate to say this, but Nintendo Switch deals are still hard to find. In fact, I can only recall seeing the Switch OLED on sale four times this year. All four times it was on sale at Woot reaching an all-time price low of $289. Note that at times Woot has discounted the Japanese console, but Woot has confirmed it will work in the U.S. as you can set the console's language and region to U.S. during setup. (That said, packaging and marketing material may be in Japanese). 

What early Black Friday deals can I shop now?

Things break. I get it. If you're in a crunch and need to replace your laptop, mattress, TV, or smartphone, above I've listed the best deals you can get right now. I expect most — if not all — of these sales to drop in price in the coming weeks. However, at this current time they're they best sales you'll find. 

Louis Ramirez

As deals editor-in-chief at Tom’s Guide, Louis is constantly looking for ways to avoid paying full price for the latest gadgets, appliances, and apparel. With over 10 years of deals-hunting experience, Louis price checks against multiple retailers and searches high and low for the best deals to bring readers. He's also always on the look out for the best coupon codes to use when shopping. A born-and-bred New Yorker, Louis is also an avid swimmer and marathoner. His work has appeared on Gizmodo, CNET, and Time Out New York.