‘We predict the iPhone will bomb’: The 10 most embarrassing quotes about Apple’s first smartphone

Ed Colligan, president and CEO of Palm, Inc., holds a Palm Treo in 2006, along with Steve Jobs and the original first iPhone from 2007 — (Image credit: Tom's Guide/Justin Sullivan/Mario Tama/Shaun Curry/AFP/Getty)

Just over 19 years ago, the late Steve Jobs took the stage at Macworld Expo in San Francisco for what may be the most significant product announcement of the modern era: the unveiling of the original iPhone (or iPhone 2G). And while many in the audience and the industry at large were blown away by that demonstration of Apple's first smartphone, it hardly went without its critics.

At the time, Apple was a company best known for its success in personal computers and portable media players. The idea they would create a smartphone — then largely the domain of business users rather than average consumers — seemed preposterous to some, and they were more than happy to declare their feelings. Even if, from the vantage point of almost two decades, they seem a little less than prescient.

Palm’s tragic underestimation

Ed Colligan, president and CEO of Palm, Inc., holds a Palm Treo in 2006 — (Image credit: Mario Tama/Getty)

“And so I just would caution people that think they’re going to walk in here and just and do these. We’ve struggled for a few years here, figuring out how to make a decent phone. The PC guys are not going to just, you know, knock this out. I guarantee it. So, look, welcome, let’s go for it. We can’t stop all that. It’s going to happen, but it’s going to be, I don’t think it’ll be so easy for everybody, as everybody thinks to enter it. It’s a tough space.”

You'd be excused for not remembering the name Ed Colligan, or even the defunct tech company Palm that he led at the time. Unfortunately for them, Apple did knock it out of the park. While Palm was a pioneer in the personal digital assistant market and had some modest success in early smartphones, the success of the iPhone was the beginning of the end for its brand, which has since been shuffled around to a variety of homes without reclaiming any vestige of its former glory.

Burned bridges

Steve Jobs and the first iPhone from 2007 — (Image credit: Shaun Curry/AFP/Getty)

Asked how he would deal with Apple and its iPhone, Motorola's Ed Zander retorted, “How do they deal with us? That's the question.” A moment later, perhaps reconsidering his challenge, he said ruefully, “Please don't quote me on that.”

Sadly, it was too late for then Motorola CEO Zander: the words had already left his mouth. Not long after, he also derided Apple's iPod nano. "Screw the nano. What the hell does the nano do? Who listens to 1,000 songs?" This all from a company that had previously partnered with Apple on its first venture into the smartphone space, a device that Steve Jobs was reputedly extremely unhappy with. I guess nobody was thrilled with that relationship.

The original iPhone shown in-hand — (Image credit: Jon Furniss/Wireimage/Getty)

John C. Dvorak wrote a scathing column for MarketWatch and is widely remembered for its skeptical and ultimately incorrect predictions about the iPhone.

“There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.”

Never one to mince words, the longtime tech pundit was downright dismissive of Apple's fancy new smartphone. (A fact that, in 2012, he attributed to being "blackballed" by Apple.) Dvorak's column is a classic example of falling prey to "conventional wisdom," pointing out that the phone market was already divided up by Nokia and Motorola, with no room for new entrants.

The iPhone, however, proved to be such a step-up from what was on offer that it entirely blew away existing competitors, not to mention Dvorak's prediction.

‘There’s just one problem: You don’t need it’

When you've been invested into an ecosystem for so long, it can sometimes be hard to accept change. Paul Thurrott’s assessment of the original iPhone serves as a fascinating time capsule.

It's an expensive toy that, ultimately, doesn’t really solve any problems at all.
Paul Thurrott

“But I didn’t write this review for those who waited in line on June 25 so they could be the first on earth to have a device that, soon, millions will own. I wrote this review for you, the fence sitter. The normal person. The guy who’s seen the constant iPhone ads on TV and in subway stations and has wondered if this thing, this expensive hunk of plastic, will actually solve some problems. The guy who, quite frankly, shouldn’t be wasting his hard earned cash on an expensive toy that, ultimately, doesn’t really solve any problems at all.”

“The iPhone is awesome. There’s just one problem: You don’t need it.”

To Thurrott's credit, the longtime Windows enthusiast's review of the original iPhone is incredibly thorough and relatively even-handed. He lauded most of the device's capabilities, if not its price and then lack of Windows compatibility. But the world has changed significantly since the first iPhone's introduction: while you might not have needed one in 2007, in 2026, it's increasingly difficult to get by without a smartphone.

Death of the flip

Motorola Razr in store — (Image credit: Getty Images)

Though flip phones have not entirely died out here in 2026, there is a certain close-mindedness that this was the biggest concern of noted computer scientist and software entrepreneur Philip Greenspun back in 2007.

“Apple introduces its first phone today. It is a bit tough to tell from looking at Apple’s web site, but it appears that this is yet another smartphone that is not a flip-phone. In other words, if it brushes up against something in your pocket it will make or answer unwanted calls. Basically all Japanese phones are flip-phones and it baffles me as to how American consumers are denied the simple interface of “open to make or answer a call; flip closed to hang up”.

While accidental dialing is hardly a thing of the past, most would probably agree that it is not among the biggest risks of smartphones, and the benefits of the category generally outweigh the risk of the occasional butt-dial.

A disruptor no one saw coming

An original iPhone held in hand — (Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty)

The old chestnut from the dawn of the automobile age is that if people had been asked what they wanted, they would have said "a faster horse." Matthew Lynn from Bloomberg wasn't the only one with a similar take on the iPhone — it's a common theme that the iPhone was such a radical departure from what was then the state of the art that some balked because they were stuck in the mindset of envisioning improvements to their existing phone. Instead, the iPhone pulled the rug out from an industry that was never the same again.

“The mobile-phone industry is becoming a cozy cartel between the network operators and a limited range of manufacturers. It could certainly use a fresh blast of competition from an industry outsider.”

“It may come — but probably from an entrepreneurial start-up somewhere. How about phones with fewer gadgets but better at making calls? Or with never-ending batteries? Or chargers that don't weigh three times as much as the phone”

“It won't come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry.”

The convergence identity crisis

Some of the earliest criticisms of the iPhone were that it tried to do too much. Ad Age's Al Ries argued that the iPhone followed in the footsteps of failed convergence devices like interactive TVs.

“Prediction No. 1: The iPhone will be a major disappointment.”

“The hype has been enormous. Apple says its iPhone is "literally five years ahead of any other mobile phone." A stock-market analyst says, "The iPhone has the potential to be even bigger than the iPod."

“I think not.”

While it's not an unreasonable position — even Apple CEO Tim Cook famously used the analogy of converging a toaster and a refrigerator as undesirable convergence — the iPhone's three-in-one proposition of an iPod, cell phone, and an internet communicator proved to be such a success that we rarely think of those three things as separate uses anymore, much less separate devices.

Launch day doom-and-gloom

People waiting outside of Apple Store for original iPhone launch — (Image credit: Getty Images/NBC News)

Even technology publications were not immune from a little iPhone doom-and-gloom, such as in the case of TechCrunch's Seth Porges. He predicted a litany of disappointments that would greet the iPhone's launch, from poor battery life to cracked screens, all largely based on some peculiar tea-leaf-reading about the phone's release date. The title of the column? "We Predict the iPhone Will Bomb."

“Until June 29, it’s hard to tell too much about the iPhone, but I can tell you with near-certainty one thing: the product was almost certainly rushed to market before Apple’s engineers would have liked.”

Personally, as the owner of one of the very first DOA iPhones, I can vouch that the launch wasn't without its wrinkles. While some of these predicted woes never really materialized (for example, people sharing songs via the iPhone's Wi-Fi), others were strangely resonant (his happiness that the iPhone sported a standard headphone jack — which of course has now largely gone the way of the dodo).

'Will struggle to break into the mainstream'

Here's a gem.

“Apple's much-anticipated iPhone, which goes on sale in the U.S. today, will struggle to break into the mainstream because of a lack of a 3G connection and low demand for converged devices, according to research.”

To be fair to The Guardian, its story was citing a study by media agency Universal McCann, which also said that Apple would struggle to hit its sales goal of 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, an outlook shared by many contemporary financial forecasters.

At the phone's high introductory cost, that was a reasonable prediction, but it ended up missing the sheer attraction of the device: in fact, Apple sold more than 17 million by the end of 2008.

Overpriced at $500

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer speaks at the Seoul Digital Forum 2006 May 25, 2006 in Seoul, South Korea. — (Image credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty)

There is perhaps no more perfect encapsulation of bad iPhone takes than the one offered by erstwhile Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. While expensive at the time, $500 is, of course, a fairly average price for a smartphone these days.

"Five hundred dollars! Fully subsidized! With a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine."

But despite the cottage industry of add-on hardware keyboard peripherals, you don't see too many people having trouble tapping out their emails on their smartphones these days. Microsoft itself didn't do so hot in the smartphone market either, of course. This lack of foresight may be one reason why.

Dan Moren is the author of multiple sci-fi books including The Caledonian Gamibt and The Aleph Extraction. He's also a long-time Mac writer, having worked for Macworld and contributed to the Six Colors blog, where he writes about all things Apple. His work has also appeared in Popular Science, Fast Company, and more

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