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The generative AI landscape, once dominated almost entirely by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, is showing clear signs of fragmentation as Google’s Gemini gains steam, new data suggests.
According to industry tracking firm Similarweb, ChatGPT’s share of global web traffic among generative AI platforms has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, while Gemini’s share has climbed past 20% in early 2026 — underscoring a significant acceleration of competitive pressure on OpenAI.
Traffic trends: a shrinking lead for ChatGPT
In early January, Similarweb’s Global AI Tracker recorded ChatGPT at roughly 64–65% of direct web traffic among AI chatbot sites. That’s a steep drop from the ~86% share the platform held a year earlier, according to the same dataset.
Over the same period, Gemini’s share has jumped into the 21–22% range, reflecting both rising user interest and broader distribution. In fact, Geminis share has grown a whopping 315% in the last 12 months.
Industry observers note that this shift is not merely a blip: ChatGPT’s slide beneath the 65% mark — the lowest since its peak in 2023 — highlights that the once near-monopoly on generative AI engagement is now cracking under competitive forces. It's no wonder OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman, declared a 'Code Red' for the company in December.
Why Gemini Is gaining ground
Several factors are contributing to Gemini’s surge, beyond headline traffic numbers:
- Deep Integration Across Google Products: Unlike ChatGPT — which users must explicitly open and engage — Gemini is woven into Google’s ecosystem, including Search, Gmail, Workspace, and Android devices. By embedding conversational AI directly into tools people already use daily, Google has expanded touchpoints for engagement.
- Product Advancements: Google’s latest Gemini 3 models have drawn attention for strong performance in reasoning, multimodal capabilities and handling large context windows — attributes that many power users now view as practical advantages in everyday tasks.
- Ecosystem distribution: In contrast to ChatGPT’s app-centric model, Gemini benefits from default placements and cross-product integration that make AI assistance a background utility rather than a destination. This strategic distribution is increasingly reflected in traffic patterns.
These moves have translated into tangible traffic growt with Similarweb data showing Gemini consistently surpassing the 20% threshold and chipping away at ChatGPT’s lead.
What this means for OpenAI
While ChatGPT remains the largest single source of direct AI traffic globally, the reduction in relative share signals mounting competitive pressure. For years, ChatGPT was synonymous with generative AI — the go-to for chatbot interactions and creative workflows alike.
Google’s strategic execution — from model performance to ecosystem leverage — has realigned expectations around leadership in the AI era. Features like huge context windows and deep integration with everyday apps have shifted practical user behavior in some circles.
Bottom line
It’s worth noting that web traffic metrics don’t capture every way users interact with generative AI today — including API usage, embedded assistants in third-party apps or non-web usage on mobile devices. Even so, the trend lines are clear: ChatGPT’s dominance has softened, and Gemini’s ascent is measurable.
For OpenAI, the data underscores a strategic inflection point. Instead of an uncontested lead, the company now operates in a competitive landscape where distribution, integration and product evolution matter as much as performance.
As 2026 progresses, the AI traffic wars are likely to remain a focal point for analysts, developers and users alike. And here at Tom's Guide, we'll be tracking it all.
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