Despite warnings about AI taking our jobs, the data tells a different story. A new report from Yale University’s Budget Lab and The Brookings Institution suggests that, despite its rapid rise, AI has not yet caused widespread disruption in the labor market.
Nearly three years after ChatGPT’s launch, employment patterns across industries remain largely unchanged.
What the numbers show
The report, authored by economists Martha Gimbel, Molly Kinder, Joshua Kendall, and Maddie Lee, argues that although graduate hiring has slowed, this is more a result of broader market conditions rather than generative AI. The study also found no evidence of mass layoffs or job displacement directly tied to the adoption of AI.
Within the report, the researchers show that while AI adoption is accelerating, workplace changes don’t happen overnight. And, as history shows from past technological shifts, work is reshaped over decades, not months.
HR leaders and CIOs are essentially in a wait-and-see mode; they are still determining which tools to adopt and how to restructure their operations around them. The lack of measurable productivity gains, highlighted in an MIT study showing only 5% of AI pilots are fully operational, underscores the hesitation. You can’t overhaul your workforce if the tech isn’t yet delivering clear results.
The takeaway
The ripple effects are most visible in the tech sector itself. Companies building AI systems are shifting away from general computer science hires and investing heavily in specialized AI researchers. And while hiring might be slowing down elsewhere, it isn’t directly attributable to AI.
As of now, it appears that AI hasn’t upended jobs, but it’s not a matter of if — it’s when. The disruption, according to the data, will likely unfold gradually over decades. For now, the workforce is in limbo: companies are testing the waters, workers are watching and learning AI, but the true shake-up is still on the horizon.
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