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Windows Phone Overtaking iOS By 2015, Claims Report

By - Source: IHS | B 55 comments

Microsoft will overtake Apple in the smartphone race by 2015 thanks to Nokia and its Lumia 900 Windows Phone device.

Market researchers at IHS report that Windows Phone will overtake Apple's iOs by 2015 by a slight margin, falling into second place behind Google's Android platform. In 2011, Windows Phone only controlled 1.9-percent of the market, but by 2015, the firm predicts it will maintain a hearty 16.7-percent, just a half percent above Apple. Android will have claimed 58.1-percent of the market by then.

So what's the propellant behind Microsoft’s rise to mobile stardom? Why, its first 4G LTE Windows Phone, the Nokia Lumia 900.

"One of the hottest new products unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show was the Lumia 900, a Windows Phone-based smartphone sporting a flashy set of features that makes it competitive with the best alternatives offered by the Android camp," said Wayne Lam, senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS.

"This hot product represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015," Lam adds.

The device seemingly has the North American market in mind, sporting a large 4.3-inch AMOLED touchscreen display, a 12MP camera with Carl Zeiss optics (an F2.2 aperture lens with a 28-mm focal length), a front-facing camera for video chatting and a 1830 mAH battery. The phone is slated to arrive on AT&T here in the States, and on Rogers and Telus networks throughout the rest of North America.

Francis Sideco, senior principal analyst for consumer and communications at IHS, praises Nokia's inclusion of 4G LTE support in the report. "In the past, Nokia always introduced new technologies in its home European market first," Sideco said. "However, for the Lumia 900—Nokia’s first LTE phone—the company initially is rolling it out in North America. This demonstrates Nokia’s commitment to re-enter the region."

To read the full report, head here. The Lumia 900 will change the smartphone world -- at least for Microsoft -- when it lands on AT&T exclusively in the States this March.

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  • 21 Hide
    Ragnar-Kon , January 22, 2012 7:10 AM
    I'll believe it when I see it.

    It seems Microsoft is going for the "same experience on all platforms" tactic. I'm personally not crazy for it, but then again I wasn't crazy about the iPhone, and that thing still sells like hotcakes. So it definitely is possible.
  • 14 Hide
    alidan , January 22, 2012 7:41 AM
    aaron88_7Wasn't the same said about the Zune overtaking the iPod?There doesn't seem to be a shortage of "analysts" that like to make wild expectations about Microsoft, but these predictions never come to fruition.


    the zune was better than the ipod, and still is, but microsoft cant sell cool.

    but most people use a pc, not a mac, and ipod touches (probably the same for iphones) are horrendous when it comes to file management. ig windows phone acts like a thumbdrive when plugged in, it will be the definitive phone to have, will be the number 1 tablet on x86 for being able to use real applications, and stands a chance at over taking apple, they just have to be smart, and get some of the pc indi games over to the arm platform... spending a few million on getting minecraft for windows phone 8, win 8 tablet, all on arm, up to the same level of completion thats on the pc, with tablet and phone centric building features, that could move a few hundred thousand units, and through word of mouth, keep moving those numbers.

    hell having a 10 inch tablet, or a 4-5 inch phone act as a second computer screen when plugged in could help sales too... i could use an mp3 player, and could use a second small monitor for play lists and such while im at a computer.

    its not the over all experiance alone, its all the crap windows phone can do that ipod cant that will sell it, even if the features are useless.
  • 10 Hide
    DjEaZy , January 22, 2012 9:57 AM
    ... Windows Phone Overtaking iOS By 2015, If Apple Sits On It's Ball's and do nothing...
Other Comments
  • 21 Hide
    Ragnar-Kon , January 22, 2012 7:10 AM
    I'll believe it when I see it.

    It seems Microsoft is going for the "same experience on all platforms" tactic. I'm personally not crazy for it, but then again I wasn't crazy about the iPhone, and that thing still sells like hotcakes. So it definitely is possible.
  • 8 Hide
    aaron88_7 , January 22, 2012 7:17 AM
    Wasn't the same said about the Zune overtaking the iPod?

    There doesn't seem to be a shortage of "analysts" that like to make wild expectations about Microsoft, but these predictions never come to fruition.
  • 4 Hide
    watcha , January 22, 2012 7:20 AM
    I don't really see the point in these 'forecasts'.

    Before the year in question, Android, iOS and Windows Phone will all release hundreds, 3, and who knows how many devices respectively.

    Nobody has any clue what those devices will look like and that makes these predictions pointless IMO.
  • 14 Hide
    alidan , January 22, 2012 7:41 AM
    aaron88_7Wasn't the same said about the Zune overtaking the iPod?There doesn't seem to be a shortage of "analysts" that like to make wild expectations about Microsoft, but these predictions never come to fruition.


    the zune was better than the ipod, and still is, but microsoft cant sell cool.

    but most people use a pc, not a mac, and ipod touches (probably the same for iphones) are horrendous when it comes to file management. ig windows phone acts like a thumbdrive when plugged in, it will be the definitive phone to have, will be the number 1 tablet on x86 for being able to use real applications, and stands a chance at over taking apple, they just have to be smart, and get some of the pc indi games over to the arm platform... spending a few million on getting minecraft for windows phone 8, win 8 tablet, all on arm, up to the same level of completion thats on the pc, with tablet and phone centric building features, that could move a few hundred thousand units, and through word of mouth, keep moving those numbers.

    hell having a 10 inch tablet, or a 4-5 inch phone act as a second computer screen when plugged in could help sales too... i could use an mp3 player, and could use a second small monitor for play lists and such while im at a computer.

    its not the over all experiance alone, its all the crap windows phone can do that ipod cant that will sell it, even if the features are useless.
  • 9 Hide
    ajay_vishvanathan , January 22, 2012 8:06 AM
    had windows phone 7 supported files transfer via bluetooth, microsd card support, it would have been better.. a little bit of better multitasking would also do.. :D 
  • 1 Hide
    mariusmotea , January 22, 2012 8:16 AM
    i was a Nokia fan, but i don't belive that nokia will survive in smartphone area thill 2015. Windows phone is at 1.4% marketshare, so this report is a joke.
  • -8 Hide
    watcha , January 22, 2012 8:46 AM
    alidanthe zune was better than the ipod, and still is, but microsoft cant sell cool.but most people use a pc, not a mac, and ipod touches (probably the same for iphones) are horrendous when it comes to file management. ig windows phone acts like a thumbdrive when plugged in, it will be the definitive phone to have, will be the number 1 tablet on x86 for being able to use real applications, and stands a chance at over taking apple, they just have to be smart, and get some of the pc indi games over to the arm platform... spending a few million on getting minecraft for windows phone 8, win 8 tablet, all on arm, up to the same level of completion thats on the pc, with tablet and phone centric building features, that could move a few hundred thousand units, and through word of mouth, keep moving those numbers. hell having a 10 inch tablet, or a 4-5 inch phone act as a second computer screen when plugged in could help sales too... i could use an mp3 player, and could use a second small monitor for play lists and such while im at a computer. its not the over all experiance alone, its all the crap windows phone can do that ipod cant that will sell it, even if the features are useless.


    The Zune was not better than the iPod at all, and still isn't (it came much later on and was widely reviewed to be worse than the iPod)

    Anyone with a brain can use drag and drop interface to populate their iPod with music - file management is no issue whatsoever, same with iPhone (even the old ones)

    Windows Phones offer very little right now, massive lack of apps and slow hardware, and no unique selling points.

    Being able to use 'real applications' is actually not an advantage at all. It's far better to use an application which was designed for phone/tablet consumption.

    All that stuff like playlists you can already do on iPhone or iPad, which can link to your PC through various apps to do all kinds of things. If you want a second monitor, simply buy one, a 10 inch one would cost less than $50. Tablets and phones are intended to be used when you aren't next to a computer.
  • -8 Hide
    __-_-_-__ , January 22, 2012 9:07 AM
    I believe it. Tizen 99% wp 0.6% ios 0.4%.
  • 0 Hide
    rantoc , January 22, 2012 9:15 AM
    watchaBeing able to use 'real applications' is actually not an advantage at all. It's far better to use an application which was designed for phone/tablet consumption.


    Sounds like something a desperate competitor would say really, if you can't see the benefits of having the real applications installed on the phone while sharing the same datasets ect you either are paid not to see them or your fanboism have clouded your judgment. The future many predicts is that you do just that - same app, same dataset, same data-source (corp/home server and/or cloud) and with the current cards that are on the table it looks like MS have a golden opportunity with wp now that intel managed to get x86 scaled down to a power envelope to fit the phones well.

    The above will be the selling argument no.1 for the wp since no one else can offer the future in the same way that ms can with the windows eco system. Many corporations are looking for good ways to expand their flexibility, for instance the company i work for it looking to enable our sales reps to be able to do orders by their phones rather than carry the laptops around all the time. Do i need to mention how nice it would been to have the same software run on pc, phone, laptop and even their new pads?

    So the above is a prediction that is possible and i for one think it will happen rather quickly especially at the pace people is changing their phones and once this takes off everyone will want one.
  • 10 Hide
    DjEaZy , January 22, 2012 9:57 AM
    ... Windows Phone Overtaking iOS By 2015, If Apple Sits On It's Ball's and do nothing...
  • 5 Hide
    purist , January 22, 2012 10:09 AM
    How can this be anything other than sponsored research. You can't even buy the phone yet and it's impact on the market for the next three years can be measured to .5%. Not likely.
    Most desktop apps are unsuitable for small format devices, regardless of CPU power and memory constraint. It'll certainly be useful for some users but not enough to drive sales significantly. It might help tablet sales though.

    Shame on Toms for publishing stuff like this. This is paid-for advertising hiding behind the disguise of "research". This is a press release and should rightly be tagged by a journalist as just so much fluff. Change the headline to "Person claims Windows Phone OS overtaking...". More informative, more honest, better journalism.
  • -6 Hide
    watcha , January 22, 2012 10:52 AM
    RantocSounds like something a desperate competitor would say really, if you can't see the benefits of having the real applications installed on the phone while sharing the same datasets ect you either are paid not to see them or your fanboism have clouded your judgment. The future many predicts is that you do just that - same app, same dataset, same data-source (corp/home server and/or cloud) and with the current cards that are on the table it looks like MS have a golden opportunity with wp now that intel managed to get x86 scaled down to a power envelope to fit the phones well.The above will be the selling argument no.1 for the wp since no one else can offer the future in the same way that ms can with the windows eco system. Many corporations are looking for good ways to expand their flexibility, for instance the company i work for it looking to enable our sales reps to be able to do orders by their phones rather than carry the laptops around all the time. Do i need to mention how nice it would been to have the same software run on pc, phone, laptop and even their new pads?So the above is a prediction that is possible and i for one think it will happen rather quickly especially at the pace people is changing their phones and once this takes off everyone will want one.


    It sounds like something an ignorant non-techy person would say to assume that just because the user interface level is custom designed for the system on which it is to be used, that the underlying dataset is any different. Indeed, pretty much all web based saas systems prove my very point when they utilise Android and/or iPhone apps to access the same datasets online. And to think that an app designed to be used with a mouse and keyboard is as good as one which was designed for a tablet, for use on a tablet, is quite frankly ridiculous, and I would suggest you are infact the fanboy here, a Windows fanboy (fortunately a rare breed). You have made no case whatsoever as to why having 'real applications' (and by that, you of course mean, applications not designed for tablet or phone consumption) is any benefit whatsoever. You make the same system argument as a time saver to the developer, not to the consumer. The consumer suffers because the product isn't quite right for the format of system they are currently using. The programming becomes a complete mess because instead of a shared data access layer (domain) which controls access for numerous device-friendly user interfaces, you end up with a messy single user-interface system trying to get the same code to work on a whole mess of different resolutions and hardware (touch, mouse, keyboard etc). In other words, the one argument you do make, is actually wrong - it's far more efficient to divide a system up into distinct, clean, separate user interface layers, which can also take advantage of the key differences between the systems, and the necessary tweaks which are required for it to function properly on a phone, as compared to a desktop, for example. Anyone who actually develops would know this.
  • 1 Hide
    watcha , January 22, 2012 10:55 AM
    In fact, my SaaS argument and the mobile apps which are built for such systems is an even better example than I realised, since the comparable alternative in line with what you're saying would be to use the phones in-built web browser to access the 'same system' as people do on their desktop.

    Yet consumers don't want that, they prefer apps which are designed for the device they're using, hence the need for apps in the first place.
  • 4 Hide
    house70 , January 22, 2012 11:39 AM
    ajay_vishvanathanhad windows phone 7 supported files transfer via bluetooth, microsd card support, it would have been better.. a little bit of better multitasking would also do..

    All that, and FIX the update process, take it back from the carriers and make it unified!
  • 1 Hide
    rex86 , January 22, 2012 12:44 PM
    __-_-_-__I believe it. Tizen 99% wp 0.6% ios 0.4%.


    that would be nice. Intel in the open source market. :) 
  • 5 Hide
    SmileyTPB1 , January 22, 2012 1:41 PM
    And the San Diego Chargers will win the Superbowl in 2015 too.

    Riiiight!
  • 5 Hide
    Shin-san , January 22, 2012 2:14 PM
    This is always hard to predict. The report says something: Android will leap incredibly far ahead of both combined. So, is iOS going the way of Blackberry or something?

    I could also see this happening, not because it's Windows Phone 7, but it's every phone manufacturer running against Apple and the phone manufacturers will have the ability to choose between Android and WP7, and won't have the choice if iOS.

    That being said: people have underestimated Apple before
  • -2 Hide
    jhansonxi , January 22, 2012 2:16 PM
    By 2015, WP7 beating iOS will be as notable as Bing beating Yahoo! - basically moving up to "first loser" from "second loser" (16.7% is practically market irrelevance). Tizen has a better chance at catching Google.
  • 1 Hide
    ajay_vishvanathan , January 22, 2012 2:35 PM
    house70All that, and FIX the update process, take it back from the carriers and make it unified!


    i agree on that too.. sad nokia... they give region specific updates.. :( 
  • 3 Hide
    rantoc , January 22, 2012 2:43 PM
    watchaIt's far more efficient to divide a system up into distinct, clean, separate user interface layers, which can also take advantage of the key differences between the systems, and the necessary tweaks which are required for it to function properly on a phone, as compared to a desktop, for example. Anyone who actually develops would know this.


    And what do you think win8 and wp8 will do? Ever heard of Metro for instance? It is designed to bridge the pc and phone gui's and ms is seeing the potential there. As a developer i am sure you know those things unless you have live under a rock the past 2-3 years? If you can't see a possible future there then the word Rom comes into mind.
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