iPhone Fold predicted to own nearly 50% of the foldable market in very first year — here's why I doubt that

As much as I’m eager to see how the iPhone Fold shapes up, Apple clearly faces a huge challenge in capturing the foldable market. A new report from Counterpoint Research makes the bold claim that Apple will capture 46% of the foldable market in North America in its first year — a shift that would put immense pressure on Motorola and Google.

Just as interesting is the report's projection that Samsung will see its market share decline from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026. This would put Samsung in the unusual position of holding a minority share rather than being the market leader — which in itself would be a massive shift for a company that has dominated foldables since the category came to fruition.

While I’m confident Apple will do everything possible to ensure the success of its first-ever foldable, I still have my doubts that it will be able to flip the script so quickly. Here’s why.

Samsung’s meticulous designs

When I first held the Galaxy Z Fold 7 last summer, I was immediately stunned by its svelte profile when unfolded — and equally impressed by its lightweight build. The combination made it hard to believe I was even holding a foldable when closed, which has naturally set a high bar for my expectations of the iPhone Fold.

While Apple is rumored to feature a creaseless design, its overall size and form factor will still have to compete with whatever Samsung reveals with the Galaxy Z Fold 8. Samsung now has seven generations of experience designing book-style foldables, with each iteration yielding meaningful, refined changes.

I’m not concerned that the latest leaks indicate a wider footprint for the iPhone Fold. However, I do worry it will arrive heavier and thicker than the competition. It’s the same reason I believe the Pixel 10 Pro Fold pales in comparison to the Galaxy Z Fold 7.

iPhone Air was overhyped

The report is far too optimistic about Apple’s market share. When paired with the ongoing hype surrounding the iPhone Fold, these lofty expectations could end up backfiring for Apple. We only need to look at the iPhone Air to see why.

During its September event, Apple clearly spent the most time on this new addition to the lineup — yet it hasn't become the sales driver many expected. While Apple doesn’t release exact sales figures, simply roaming around New York City and seeing what phones people are actually using is proof enough for me that the iPhone Air hasn't been well received.

The iPhone Fold could ultimately share the same fate. I personally found it tough to use the iPhone Air as my daily driver, especially when it meant compromising on battery life and settling for a single camera. The iPhone Fold could face the same struggle, forcing consumers to think twice before choosing it over flagship models like the iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max.

Software and price can’t be overlooked

If Apple is forecasted to dominate the market, there are two factors it cannot overlook with the iPhone Fold: software and price. The software will be particularly interesting, as the iPhone Fold is expected to feature a massive 7.8-inch screen, requiring a completely reimagined interface to take advantage of that real estate.

The reason the Galaxy Z Fold line continues to thrive is software optimization. Samsung has turned its foldables into multitasking powerhouses. They don’t just run apps side-by-side, they offer Samsung DeX for a robust, desktop-like experience.

While WWDC 2026 could give us our first glimpse of how Apple is refining iOS 27 to adapt to a larger canvas, it will need to do a lot more to match the utility currently offered by the Galaxy Z Fold 7.

Finally, there is the matter of pricing. We’ve already seen how the Galaxy Z TriFold effectively priced itself out of the market. I expect Apple will at least match the Galaxy Z Fold 8's price point, but if the iPhone Fold arrives substantially higher, it could be a death sentence for Apple’s first foldable. Capturing nearly half the market with a first-generation device is a monumental task — and for now, I remain skeptical.

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