Considering the foldable iPhone Ultra is expected to come with a gargantuan price tag that could start as high as $2,500, I've often asked myself whether people are actually going to buy it. Especially when you remember all the sacrifices you'll need to make compared to something like the iPhone 18 Pro Max. But one expert doesn't think this will stop the iPhone Ultra from being "wildly successful".
Previously we've heard that Apple is aiming to ship 10 million iPhone Ultra units in its first year. It's a lofty goal, but IDC analyst Nabila Popal believes (via Bloomberg) that Apple can hit that target and "rescue that segment of the smartphone market from decline" in the process.
Popal says that "a very elite set of consumers are being targeted" and that those people "will be lining up to buy the device." In fact, IDC believes that the iPhone Ultra will be so successful it will account for 40% of all foldable shipments in 2027.
A very elite set of consumers are being targeted
Nabila Popal, IDC analyst
Those consumers will no doubt include the super rich who can afford to drop $2.5k on a brand new smartphone, but it will also likely include the Apple superfans who are desperate to use a foldable iPhone.
That sounds like a huge jump for a first-time foldable, but you have to remember this is Apple we're talking about. It commands the kind of brand loyalty that you just don't see from other phone makers, and the fact it's attempting to ship 10 million iPhone Ultra units for $2,500 shows the company knows that.
Especially considering Samsung started 2026 with the goal of producing 6.3 million foldable phones — later adding another million Galaxy Z Fold 8 units after positive reception at launch. Bear in mind that Samsung has been in the foldable phone business for almost a decade, is arguably the biggest producer outside of China and just released three new foldable models.
The fact that Apple is still being predicted to ship 10 million units, and outsell Samsung, is testament to how it's managed to capture the smartphone market. Especially if predictions are correct and the Ultra does manage to reverse a decline in foldable sales.
10 million units isn't actually a lot
The crazy thing is that 10 million units pales in comparison to the number of non-foldable iPhones Apple manages to sell. Apple doesn't reveal the exact number of units sold, but analyst estimates suggest Apple is targeting 85 million new iPhones for the latter half of this year — including 70 million iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Maxes.
10 million iPhone Ultras almost feels like a conservative goal in contrast to the non-foldable iPhones that are due to be announced.
That relatively low figure may also play into reports that the iPhone Ultra will be hard to find. There have been multiple claims that the Ultra will be in high demand, despite the extreme price tag. When you factor in trade-ins, payment plans and the people willing to spend whatever it takes to have the next must-have device, that isn't a huge surprise.
But at the same time there have been reports that Apple may not be able to produce enough iPhone Ultras to satisfy demand. One such report claimed that Apple may only have somewhere between 0.5 and 1 million units ready to go, which is a fraction of that 10 million goal.
While we still don't know whether that will be the case, there should come a point where supply and demand normalize. In other words, don't go paying even more money to scalpers, because you're too impatient to wait a few weeks or months for your own iPhone Ultra.
Though that may be easier said than done if reports that Apple could stagger the global release are true. That means American buyers may get first dibs at the device, followed by other regions around the world — including China, Australia, the U.K. and parts of Europe.
Thankfully we don't have that long to wait to see what's going on with the iPhone Ultra. Apple has confirmed it will host the next iPhone launch event on September 9, and with it should come a smorgasbord of details about its first foldable.
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