'Largest drop ever': IDC predicts dire smartphone market in 2026 over memory shortage crisis

A bunch of phones showing their cameras. — (Image credit: Tom's Guide / John Velasco)

The AI-fueled RAM crisis has already deeply affected PC manufacturers and is coming for your TV too. Now though, a new forecast from research firm IDC suggests smartphones will be significantly affected by RAMaggedon.

Compared to last year, IDC is forecasting that smartphone shipments will decline by 13% in 2026, which would be the lowest amount in more than a decade.

“What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry," VP for Worldwide Client Devices Francisco Jeronimo said.

IDC graph on smartphone shipments — (Image credit: IDC)

Rising component costs starting with memory are hitting manufacturers in the margins and IDC says that they will put those costs on customers. Especially for smaller manufacturers.

IDC predicts Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate the memory crisis but even those companies are getting it with higher prices. Samsung's mobile division isn't even getting preferential treatment from its own memory division. The Korean DealSite recently reported that Apple didn't even try to negotiate with Samsung on memory pricing and immediately agreed to a 100% price increase to ensure that it secured a contract.

The memory crisis "marks a structural reset of the entire market," senior research director at IDC Nabila Popal said in the report. She went on to say that forecasts predict the average selling price for smartphones will rise to a record $523 this year, meaning even cheap phones will no longer be as wallet-friendly. They even predict a number of manufacturers will exit the market.

Additionally, even though the memory crisis is expected to stabilize in 2027, IDC predicts that it's unlikely smartphone prices will go back down now that they've been set higher.

No end in sight

Four RAM stacks — (Image credit: Shutterstock)

As you can see in the graph and IDC's statements, the memory crisis should be "stabilized" by 2028. However, a different analyst Jukan Choi recently predicted that the RAM crisis might not go away.

"DRAM being in short supply may become the new normal," they said. This is largely due to a shift in focus on HDM, which is focused on AI infrastructure and not consumer goods.

HP said in its last earnings call that RAM now makes up 35% of a laptop's build cost. Interim CEO Bruce Broussard has said he believes the market will "rationalize" over time, he has not provided a potential timeline. An Asus rep told Tom's Guide something similar, though they noted that "no one wants to be the first to lower prices."

Meanwhile, entire categories of the tech world are being swallowed up in the wake of AI's data center greed.

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Scott Younker is the West Coast Reporter at Tom’s Guide. He covers all the lastest tech news. He’s been involved in tech since 2011 at various outlets and is on an ongoing hunt to build the easiest to use home media system. When not writing about the latest devices, you are more than welcome to discuss board games or disc golf with him. He also handles all the Connections coverage on Tom's Guide and has been playing the addictive NYT game since it released.

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