I consider myself the most casual soccer fan there is. Just me calling the sport “soccer” and not referring to its proper name of “fútbol” has resulted in me getting dirty stares at bars where the World Cup games are on.
Even with my lack of knowledge about the sport as a whole, I’ve enjoyed every nail-biting minute of the games I’ve watched thus far. Witnessing the US get trounced by Belgium and screaming my head off when Argentina eked out a win against Egypt have stood out as some of the more exciting developments of this year’s World Cup competition.
Now that we’ve finally reached the quarterfinals, I went and looked back at ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity’s predictions for who would emerge as the champions of this year’s World Cup once it started. To my surprise, they all chose Spain. And right now, Spain is still alive and is set to compete against Belgium. So all three chatbots’ initial picks for the winner might still ring true.
With that in mind, I ran another World Cup winner prediction experiment with those same three AI models now that we’re set for quarterfinals action. Once again, I was shocked by their picks and am now readying myself for another team to take the trophy home.
ChatGPT’s championship prediction
Instead of sticking with its original pick of Spain, ChatGPT changed its prediction to France emerging as this year’s World Cup champions.
It switched sides by explaining that France has looked like the most complete team in the tournament due to having the deepest squad, elite attacking firepower led by player Kylian Mbappé and a level of defense that hasn’t had much trouble contending with their opponents. The chatbot also acknowledged how France has plenty of World Cup tournament experience and has several players on its squad that have already captured major trophy victories.
What I found most interesting about ChatGPT’s predictions was the two teams it picked as the biggest threats to France and the one team that it chose as a dark horse winner:
- Biggest threat - Spain: Spain is probably the team I'd least want to face. Their midfield control and attacking creativity make them dangerous, and they're peaking at the right time. Their quarterfinal against Belgium could easily feel like an early final.
- Biggest threat - Argentina: Argentina always has championship pedigree. As long as Lionel Messi is on the field, they're capable of winning any match. They also seem to thrive in tense knockout games.
- Dark horse - Norway: They weren't on many people's shortlists before the tournament, but knocking out Brazil changed that. If Erling Haaland catches fire, they have enough quality to beat anyone. Their biggest concern is reports that illness has affected several players ahead of the England match.
Gemini’s top pick for the winning team
To my surprise, Gemini didn’t stray away from its first prediction, as it chose Spain for this second go-round of 2026 World Cup predictions.
While it still mentioned France, Argentina and England as other top contenders (and also chose Norway and Morocco as dark horse contenders), Google’s chatbot ultimately stuck with Spain due to what it says is the team’s balance on both sides of the pitch.
Here are the other reasons it gave Spain the edge for its 2026 World Cup prediction once again:
- Defensive solidity: Spain has been incredibly disciplined at the back. They recently shut out a strong Portugal side 1-0 in the Round of 16 and easily handled Austria 3-0 in the Round of 32. Winning tournaments historically requires an ironclad defense, and Spain has proven they can secure clean sheets under pressure.
- Form and momentum: Coming off consecutive commanding wins without conceding a single goal gives them massive momentum as they prepare to face Belgium in the quarterfinals.
- Balanced attack: While some squads rely heavily on individual superstars to bail them out, Spain has demonstrated a cohesive, possession-based team dynamic that makes them very difficult to dispossess or counterattack against.
Perplexity’s choice for the ultimate victor
Perplexity did its proper research and emerged with the same prediction as ChatGPT: France. The chatbot pointed to Argentina, Spain and England as the closest contenders to also winning it all. The chatbot based its top championship pick on bookmakers’ odds at the time of this writing and what prediction markets were saying.
Here’s how Perplexity saw the quarterfinals bracket unfolding and additional reasoning for its final pick:
- How the bracket shapes things: The quarterfinals are: France vs Morocco, Spain vs Belgium, Norway vs England, and Argentina vs Switzerland. France, Spain, England and Argentina are all favored to advance from these ties, which would likely set up semifinals featuring some combination of those four.
- My reasoned pick: France has been dominant so far (outscoring opponents 14–2) and was already one of the pre‑tournament favorites, which is why their implied probability is the highest. Argentina, Spain and England all have realistic paths and enough quality that any could win if they hit form or get favorable in‑game breaks, so I’d treat France as a slight favorite rather than a heavy one.
The takeaway
So it looks like either Spain or France will be walking off the field as this year’s victors of the World Cup.
While I would love to see an upset cause everyone to go mad and produce a shocker of a final game between two unexpected teams, I’m sure the two teams that ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity mentioned among their predictions will be the most likely to end up in the championship game.
Now let’s see how all this current soccer…excuse me, fútbol madness unfolds.
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