Internet an "Unreliable Toy" by 2012
Source: Tom's Guide US | Keywords: Internet, Unreliable, Toy, Study | Themes: The Internet
Researchers are saying that by 2012, desktops and laptops will perform like a jogger running through quicksand, rendering the Internet as an "unreliable toy."
In the X-Files, the aliens are scheduled to invade the earth in 2012. In the real world, the last day on the Mayan calendar is December 24, 2012, thus triggering so-called "cataclysmic and apocalyptic events" that will end the world. Now American think-tank Nemertes Research is saying that cyberspace, as we know it today, will come to an end in 2012. But if the Mayan armageddon prophecy holds true, no one will be around to really care about the Internet.
However, the idea behind Nemertes Research's prophecy is that consumer demand will eventually bring down the backbone of the Internet. Think of it as a bridge: when it was new, the bridge had no trouble sustaining a constant load moving from point A to point B; it could even withstand weight above its maximum limit. Now that it's old and rickety, the foundation is beginning to crack, its support beams are buckling and there's not enough resources and man power to fix it before it collapses. This idea applies to the Internet, now carrying more weight that it was designed, and the "fractures" will only get worse over time.
What makes matters worse is that consumer demand grows an average 60-percent a year. Why? Supposedly, sites such as YouTube, Hulu and hordes of other bandwidth-hungry websites are to blame. As an example, one month of YouTube traffic is equivalent to the amount of data traffic generated across the entire Internet in 2000; BBC's iPlayer now accounts for 5-percent of all UK Internet traffic. As it stands, current monthly Internet traffic runs around eight exabytes: an exabyte equals to one quintillion bytes (or units) of data, or more simply put, 50,000 years' worth of DVD-quality data. That's certainly a huge amount of information passing across the globe.
The think-tank also said that eventually network servers will lock up and reboot due to the heavy data movement, causing random "brownouts." By 2012, desktops and laptops will perform like a jogger running through quicksand, rendering the Internet as an "unreliable toy." The random "time out" sessions experienced by many Internet users today will have evolved into day-long traffic jams by then. Internet users may even begin to feel the effects come next year as the first wave of disruptions sweeps through the Internet.
“With more people working or looking for work from home, or using their PCs more for cheap entertainment, demand could double in 2009,” said Ted Ritter, a Nemertes analyst. “At best, we see the economic slowdown delaying the fractures for maybe a year.”
So what can be done to remedy to problem? Currently ISPs are frantically spending billions to replace old hardware and upgrade to overall capacity of their networks, however the recession has slowed down the process, and may ultimately be a waste of time as traffic continues to grow at its current rate, and outpacing the network upgrading process. In one sense, it's completely understandable why IPSs such as Time Warner and Comcast are considering, even implementing, bandwidth caps: the overall structure can no longer support the heavy load of traffic.
However, according to The Times Online, network engineers are planning The Grid, a lightning-fast parallel network. Other engineers are constructing private computer stations called "caches" where popular entertainment data is stored on local machines rather than sent through the "global backbone." It may be that consumers will witness a new cyber highway within the next few years, and the old structure--originally designed by British scientist Sir Tim Berners-Lee--is bypassed and abandoned like those old dirt roads of yesteryear.
Still, if cyberspace is indeed filling up as Nemertes Research indicates, everyone might want to get their fill before the world comes to an end, the aliens invade, and there's no more Hulu to watch late at night.
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Its just like futurama predicted! We have been waiting for 7 years and have finally connected to the internet!
But seriously, with the internet being such a crucial part of life now a days, do you really think this will happen? Even if what we know as the internet today doesn't work in 2012, they will have devolved something new to take over and accomplish the task.
In 2012....
...Linux will be used in 95% of all desktops
...AltaVista will rise from the ashes and execute a hostile takeover of Google
...The Pirate Party will gain a majority of seats in the Sweedish parliament
...The Bill of Rights will mandate free Healthcare ...and free iPods
...Somali Pirates will take down a US Carrier using beebee guns
...Researchers will discover the X-Gene and figure out how to give us all the mutant abilities
...Sarah Palin will be President
Oh yes, and the Internet will become an unreliable toy
In 2012.......Linux will be used in 95% of all desktops...AltaVista will rise from the ashes and execute a hostile takeover of Google...The Pirate Party will gain a majority of seats in the Sweedish parliament...The Bill of Rights will mandate free Healthcare ...and free iPods...Somali Pirates will take down a US Carrier using beebee guns...Researchers will discover the X-Gene and figure out how to give us all the mutant abilities...Sarah Palin will be PresidentOh yes, and the Internet will become an unreliable toy
yes yes, but will it blend?
I call total BS on this, the servers and backbones they talk about are constantly evolving, handling more IOPS, higher bandwidths, 10Gb fiber just for server to server connections are becoming more prevalent.
Demand increases exponentially, and so does capacity.
I believe that those in power don't like the fact that their lies are being exposed and then quickly spread like wildfire... Bad internet, BAD!!!
So yeah, I suppose that this means that ISPs, unlike banks, fast-food restaurants, etc... apparently bought all of their IT infrastructure up-front with the idea of never upgrading or replacing their hardware to meet business growth... Uh huh, sure..... A lot can be done in 3 years, and we have the good old US government to print up more money for them if they can't foot the bill...
I highly doubt the internet will be unreliable by 2012, we have a better chance of being killed by hostile Aliens. By 2012 are internet download speeds will be 8 times faster than they are now, Comcast already has 60 Megs per second download speeds available, by the time 2012 hits midnight will be seeing probably 100 to 150 megs a second download capabilitys. I would say just the oppisite about 2012, by
then will just be getting started.
I don't agree with the ideas argued here.Because behind the technology there is money.If there is money there is always new technology.ıf there is not money so we don't need to worry about over weight on the data over the net.So this tought is as improbable as the old Mayans'.
I don't agree with the ideas argued here.Because behind the technology there is money.If there is money there is always new technology.ıf there is not money so we don't need to worry about over weight on the data over the net.So this tought is as improbable as the old Mayans'.
So the current internet infrastructure will be incapable of supporting the level of network traffic required in three years time?
I don't want to be cynical about Nemertes Research, as egghead geeks go they are probably amongst the best, but two thoughts occur here
1) The internet infrastructure is constantly evolving. When, in it's entire, short, history has the internet infrastructure existing on a given year ever been capable of sustaining the network traffic that it's been running three years later?
2) Dumb name. Really
on a side note the US DOD funded the internet which, if it was invented by any one person, was invented by Vinton Cerf. Berners-Lee came up with HTML.
What stupid crap.
The internet backbone will be upgraded by that time stupid a**!
This is *exactly* what the Mayas and Nostradamus had been predicting for 2012 all along
"By 2012, desktops and laptops will perform like a jogger running through quicksand, rendering the Internet as an "unreliable toy." The random "time out" sessions experienced by many Internet users today will have evolved into day-long traffic jams by then."
what a moron in 2012 my destop will be just as speedy as ever , i will still play games quite easily just not online and the inter net will move like a jogger in quick sand ... but you know what you can have a computer that is not hooked to the web at all and web its speed won't be affected in the least, the comptuer it's self will still be quite fast.
Don't you hate it when "experts" word things so in acurrately ???
alrite...i'm making a bet with everyone.
if the mayan prophecy does come true. i will buy everyone who betted against me an i7 computer with the latest graphics card.
if the prophecy doesn't happen, you all owe me 20$ each
p.s. given that i agree with every one here and call BS on these guysfirst off they made massive inacurracies in the statment to begin with as if intert traffic is all that counts on a comps speed.secondly they are assuming teh itnernet is soem ind of "new"buisness model that doesnt grow like the rest of teh world's buisness models
So the internet is gonna collapse...? Why is it that I find this hard to believe
alrite...i'm making a bet with everyone.if the mayan prophecy does come true. i will buy everyone who betted against me an i7 computer with the latest graphics card.if the prophecy doesn't happen, you all owe me 20$ each
lol nah not gonna take that bet ...
This is just like Y2K. For some completely irrational reason, people fear the apocalypse. I find this humorous. ^-^
OH NOES, I CANT LOSE MY INTERWEBS LOL...
yeah, 100Mb/s with 10gB caps, lol
"Think of it as a bridge: when it was new, the bridge had no trouble sustaining a constant load moving from point A to point B; it could even withstand weight above its maximum limit. Now that it's old and rickety, the foundation is beginning to crack, its support beams are buckling and there's not enough resources and man power to fix it before it collapses. This idea applies to the Internet, now carrying more weight that it was designed, and the "fractures" will only get worse over time."
Duh...build a bigger, stronger bridge with more lanes, Moron!
I still don't really like all this cloud computing stuff. I remember reading about plans to have your games rendered and then sent to you as some sort of video stream. While I do get the idea and it does seem like a good one at first it does pose a serious bandwidth problem.
Maybe the old ways will still serve us well for a time at least until we can find the bandwidth for all this cloud stuff.
I had a thought about the internet aways back when i was younger, that there's going to be so much crap on the internet it'll be useless, at least for searches... i mean, from time to time i like to search for old sites i cant remember right off the top of my head, but when i search Google for them, periodically the results change. This is obviously because there's always new crap on the internet, but now i have to go through a ton of search pages to find things ACTUALLY relevant to my search criteria; and it just gets worse as time goes on.
Although i do get the cap/demand aspect, it seems like more and more crap is all thats being put on them, (not all actual internet garbage... i guess)
My prediction is that people that make predictions will be wrong more often the right. Stop wasting time contemplating and make something useful, like a faster internet.
linux wont be on 95% of computer, i wont use it and normal consumers wont either. I love windows, dont care what you say. its compatible, fast, easy, and now super reliable. You guys who are great at computer and do programming and sht, go ahead get linux. ill stick to my easy life.
Maybe I am crazy O.O but this sounds like the Cable companies decided to pay for market research to help scare people into thinking broadband caps are a must have O.O
Are they planing on moving all websites from html to HDMI?
If the internet goes down like this, the ISPs are to blame. It's their business to keep it running. why else are we paying them?
Engineers will think of new ways to fix this problem. I'm sure the jump in traffic during 1995 caused a similar problem. Perhaps a restructuring of the way internet routs and centralize information. but it's not going down. Nice try timewarner.
Go outside, read a book, play some sports, make some friends, get laid...
BLASPHEMY!
My outdoors is virtually emulated, with better shading technology getting me a quite realistic sun.
I read my books on PDFs.
My sports are games.
I make friends through chat rooms and online games.
The last on my list... that may be half of the total internet bandwidth. Okay I agree on actually getting laid at least.
How about I just play my games via LAN WIFI?
The ISPs are complaining about the constantly increasing traffic which their upgrades can't keep up with, but for some reason they continue offering faster services. One might wonder why they continue to offer faster services if they can't even keep up with the traffic anticipated with existing speeds. If the greedy fools don't have the chops to keep up with demand, then don't offer faster services! But of course, they have to offer faster services to stay "competitive," which has self-destructive traffic-encouraging results, which allows them to justify bandwidth caps and ridiculous fees to pay for the infrastructure they no longer have to upgrade. What a great system.