The big three memory makers told us RAMpocalypse was the unavoidable side effect of the AI revolution. But with one massive report from the Bank of America, that main alibi may have just gone up in flames.
So context, the AI Tax on tech has been insane recently with prices going up by an astronomical 700%, and the big three memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) have made serious cash off as the oligopoly that controls around 90% of the global DRAM market.
They claim that the reason prices are skyrocketing is because the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI data centers is so massive, that consumer RAM supplies are naturally drying up. In response, a massive class-action lawsuit in California is calling their bluff and accusing them of price fixing.
For these memory makers, the defense should be a simple one: “we aren’t fixing prices, and we’re building new fabs as fast as we can!” You’ve heard a lot of this over the past few months about plans to open new plants to make more memory. BUT, a bombshell new report has potentially demolished that defense.
How this alibi collapses
According to a South Korean news outlet, a Bank of America report just dismantled the promises of doubled memory production capacity by 2030 — with SK Hynix only likely to bring about one-sixth of its planned new memory capacity online by 2028. Here’s why:
- Timeline: Setting up the advanced infrastructure needed for these plants is going to take upwards of a decade.
- Process upgrades: At the same time as it's building new plants, the manufacturing technology needs to be updated in older ones, which impacts output.
In late June, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung made the claim that production capacity will be doubled by 2030, which sounds great on paper. However, Bank of America's estimates claim this figure misses out the closure of older plants, and that doubling claim is way too optimistic.
For the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, this is going to be a juicy piece of circumstantial evidence. If it can be proven that SK Hynix is moving in slow-motion and severely under-delivering on its capacity promises, that narrative of “doing everything they can” to meet consumer demand is dismantled.
Instead, it strongly supports the core allegation: they’re happy to keep supply choked and prices inflated permanently.
They’re not reading the room
Adding insult to injury, the CEO of SK Hynix recently warned that 2027 will be the "worst year" for the memory shortage, and predicted the crunch will last until 2030. But if one thing is clear, consumers are not buying this spin anymore. “That CEO was probably struggling so hard not to look too happy as he gave this “grim outlook”,” one user posted on the PC Master Race Subreddit.
Across Reddit, the reaction has shifted from passive frustration to absolute cynicism, with calls to “prosecute the memory cartel again” ringing out across r/technology. The overarching sentiment? I knew we weren’t crazy.
The playbook is painfully familiar. Samsung and SK Hynix previously pleaded guilty to a massive DRAM price-fixing operation in 2005. Now, facing a historic lawsuit over the exact same behavior, it feels like they’re trying to hide behind the AI boom.
But with this latest report saying their shiny new fabs won’t save us anytime soon, the curtain has been pulled back. The AI memory shortage isn’t a tragic tech accident; it’s looking more and more like a highly profitable, coordinated choice. And we are all footing the bill.
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More from Tom's Guide
- Lenovo warns that higher RAM prices are the "new normal" and we might never see them go back down
- ‘The squeeze is real’: I spoke to RAM crisis oracle, Carmen Li, about when this nightmare ends — here’s what she told me
- 'No one has a crystal ball': Lexar execs have a plan to reduce our RAM dependency if the AI data boom lasts 'for years'
