IE10: The Long Way Back To Glory

Just hours after I had finished writing the column, Microsoft released the first preview of IE10, indicating that Microsoft is serious about the browser market. So, how serious is the company?

I have to admit that the first look at IE10 left me a bit confused. It is everything Microsoft so harshly criticized about frequent browser updates. We are told that updates are about progress, not activity which makes sense, even if I would argue that Microsoft has too much distance to the average user at this time. It's not just about progress. It's also about perception. I will return to that a bit later in this article.

IE10 Platform Preview 1 (PP1) was released about four weeks after the release of IE9 final, or about three weeks after Microsoft had started working on IE10. That is a far slower development pace than Google or even Mozilla: Mozilla has Firefox 4 final in the market, is prepping the Macaw security update for early May, has Firefox 5 in its second release phase and Firefox 6 in its early development stages. Google also has three Chrome versions in parallel development (10, 11, and 12). Microsoft said that it will be releasing PPs every 8 to 12 weeks, while it is already clear that there will be at least four PPs, with PP4 being targeted for a November 2011 to February 2012 release time frame. So there is an accelerated development cycle as well - IE8 was released 2 years after IE7 and IE9 came two years after IE8. It seems that IE10 could launch just one year after IE9.          

Microsoft indicated that IE10 will build on the IE9 foundation, which, unfortunately, not only includes a transition to HTML5, CSS3 support and hardware acceleration, but also the fact that Microsoft increases the pressure to get its Windows user base off Windows XP and Vista. IE10 only runs under Windows 7 and will require a "substantial" Windows 7 update when version PP4 is reached. Microsoft is clearly in a transition period and there is no negotiation room for users. The feature set of IE9 and IE10 are indicative in every way how Microsoft is setting up its application future for the cloud: Microsoft's app system, which will include Office 365, will heavily depend on certain HTML5 features, hardware acceleration as well as advanced CSS3 layout features. With IE10, it appears to be clear that Microsoft is hard at work to replicate the traditional offline app experience in the browser window - and it actively pushes certain features the company quite obviously needs.    

From a user perspective, IE10 is a disappointment so far. There is not the progress Microsoft has been preaching and we are just three weeks into the development of IE10. However, we also know that it's not a consumer browser and inconvenient enough to use that you really don't want to use it on a daily basis. It is not faster than IE9 in any of the 245 JavaScript, offline page loading, HTML5 or Flash benchmarks I ran. The performance is within the margin of error in every single case. However, Microsoft posted a few new technology demonstrations that showcase what is new in IE10 - and that is the best way to view this browser: It's an early look and a showcase of a handful of new technologies that are supported in this browser (some demos won't run in IE9, such as CSS3 multi-column layouts.) The list of updates is somewhat short - it covers support for CSS3 flexbox, CSS3 grid alignment, CSS3 multi-column, CSS3 gradients on background-images and ECMAScript5 Strict Mode. Progress? That depends on your view, but I suspect that Microsoft simply needed something to show at MIX 11 and needed to remind us that IE10 is actually being developed.

That is, in fact, the takeaway. IE10 is coming, not more and not less. It's good to see that Microsoft is pushing new ideas and extensions for existing standards. there is a certain dynamic in the IE team, I haven't seen in more than 13 years. However, Microsoft is caught in a Catch 22 as far as those features are concerned: On the one side, it obviously needs those features for its future software strategy, but it can only run them on Windows 7. I am sure, Microsoft is getting tired reminding us how old Windows XP is, but Windows XP is really a left-over problem of the Vista disaster that cemented Windows XP's market position. Windows 7 is on its way to a 25% OS market share globally (according to Net Applications) and painfully limits IE9's market exposure, while Google and Mozilla are raiding Microsoft's Windows XP base with browsers that feature HTML5 support and hardware acceleration on Windows XP as well. I also believe that Microsoft is not taking Google's threat seriously - Google is now aggressively attacking Microsoft's Office users with its Cloud Connect app and is using features (SPDY) for its servers and Chrome that apparently accelerate Chrome and the app usage by about 50%.

Is IE10 enough to evolve IE9? No one can say that that as of now: There are a few new features, but it is unclear whether they will materialize. IE10 is also in a very early development stage and if Microsoft is now accelerating the development phase as well, then we won't see the true IE10 until November of this year. A judgment what IE10 will be and what it will not be is impossible to say as of now. I don't even think that Microsoft knows how IE10 will look like in a year - Firefox and Chrome are moving targets and there will be plenty of developments Microsoft will have to react to.

On a personal note, I believe that Microsoft is on the right path, but I would wish the company stopped trashing its rivals and praising itself when it's not exactly appropriate. Microsoft needs to focus on its own browser and keep doing what it has started with IE9. There's a very solid foundation that can be built into a browser that could return IE to old glory again. In the long run, I am convinced that Microsoft will need to extend IE9/IE10 to Vista and XP users to avoid a blood bath that will force Microsoft to surrender the market share lead in browsers.

IE9 may merely be a strategic piece to set the HTML5 battlefield. IE10 will have to go into battle - and it will need a few more goodies to have a chance. As I mentioned above, feature additions are just one part of the equation. Perception is the other: Microsoft can preach all day long how great its CSS3 support is and it won't matter if IE10 does not expand on the perception of a modern and dynamic browser that delivers updates on a constant pace and maintains the look of an always up-to-date browser that delivers the best of the crop at any given time. 12-week update cycles are, conceivably, too long in today's browser world. Within 24 weeks, the entire browser world can turn around and leave IE9/IE10 users left in the dust.