Analysts: Blu-ray to Overtake Digital Distribution
Source: Tom's Guide US | Keywords: Blu-ray, Media, Streaming, Economy | Themes: Digital Entertainment
2009 may be the year of the Blu-ray.
According to HomeMedia, Blu-ray media sales will overtake digital distribution in 2009. The high definition media is expected to see a 150 percent increase in sales over 2008, from $1.1 billion to $2.9 billion.
Despite the recent success found in digital distribution, packaged media is still the powerhouse force, with DVD leading the way followed by its younger but bigger brother Blu-ray. So what is holding digital distribution back? Bandwidth. “The bandwidth required to stream any type of HD video is way beyond what most households have,” says In-Stat analyst Michael Paxton. “The convenience factor is still not there for streaming media, unless you are watching on a laptop and it is the only option you have. The packaged media business model is one that the consumer is very comfortable with.”
While Blu-ray is expected to see a sharp increase in sales, is it really as strong as some believe? For now, Blu-ray is number two because the U.S. lacks the proper broadband infrastructure to support a massive surge in streaming HD content. If America had the bandwidth capabilities of say, South Korea, streaming HD would be a reality for many. Also, with the economy in its current state, many pressed for cash may not be drawn to Blu-ray.
That said, Blu-ray is dropping in price. The average price for movies on the HD medium dropped 14 percent in Q4 of 2008. However, that drop still leaves the average BD movie price at a very high $28.93, more than thirteen dollars over the price of a DVD, which comes in at $15.74. But, like any media, prices will continue to drop. So what's a movie buff to do? Compromise! While films like Iron Man and The Dark Knight are certainly worth the Blu-ray premium, leave the comedies and "chick flicks" on DVD. Are Superbad and Sex in the City going to be that much better in 1080p? Didn't think so.
For those who live and die by streaming HD content - don't fret. Netflix is still going strong on streaming content. Also, the same analysts who see Blu-ray coming in second in 2009 also see digital distribution representing 15 percent of the market by 2013.
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So, did they factor in the announcement by Charter to offer 60mbps?
I am very confused as to why people think blu-ray will see these humongous leaps in sales in what is looking to be the worst financial year in the United States in 25+ years. I used to be a buyer of blu-ray as did many people I know but I have purchased exactly ZERO movies since about mid-September. I see no reason to believe that as the financial problems worsen overpriced media such as blu-ray will pick up in sales.
How typical. More easily spotted errors. Good job guys.
"The high definition media is expected to see a 150 percent increase in sales over 2008, from $1.1 billion to $2.9 billion."
^-1 Nevermind. Missed the word 'over'. Dont I feel like an Idiot?
Gave myself a thumbs down. lol
Blue ray is a new dying tech. IMHO, i think BR/DVD is going to follow the same demise as the music CD's, internet downloading and streaming..
lol is HomeMedia owned by Sony?
Worldwide global recessions, worse us recession since the Great Depression. Blue Ray sales increase 150%? I think these "anaylsts" will need new jobs soon. -Note I do own a BlueRay Player and Blue Ray movies.
Are we all forgetting that one of the biggest draws to DVD, Bluray is the sound?? 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 in all the new DTS/Dolby codecs. That takes a lot of info to bring them to your home theater, I just don't see how a digital download can include the sound the way a directors intended ... without the file being 20-30gb
10Mbps download stream is enough for hi-def with 7.1 dolby whatever sound in real time. One major broadband overhaul and discs will be obsolete for everything but backup.
Steaming is the new deal. Blu-ray is dead!!!!!!!!!!
The internet is getting faster all the time. In my area it is quick and easy to download 50GB
Worldwide global recessions, worse us recession since the Great Depression. Blue Ray sales increase 150%? I think these "anaylsts" will need new jobs soon. -Note I do own a BlueRay Player and Blue Ray movies.
It's been shown that when the economy is doing bad, home media does extremely well. People prefer to watch movies, and play games at home, then go out.
For anyone who wants digital content and prefers HD, BluRay is really the only viable option... even for those who have a fast Internet connection, the most popular ISPs (Comcast and others) have relatively low monthly caps in terms of how BIG this content is.

Maybe the BluRay market will grow this 150% because of Netflix and Blockbuster buying them for their home programs.
I use charter with no limits. I download at speeds of 2000KB/s, it dont take to long to get what ever I want.
I watch blu ray rips no problemo.
Soon all ISP's will be forced to remove limits. Its onlt a matter of time.
It's been shown that when the economy is doing bad, home media does extremely well. People prefer to watch movies, and play games at home, then go out.
I am sure that people will be very excited to spend 5-6 times more on a movie when they don't have a job. DVD sales will go up, not blu-ray.
I am sure that people will be very excited to spend 5-6 times more on a movie when they don't have a job. DVD sales will go up, not blu-ray.
Where the hell do you live?
Where I live Blu-rays cost a forth to a third more, and in some cases, there isn't even a price difference.
By the way, aren't legal movie downloads right now more compressed than blu-ray even when they are still the same resolution.
Streming is suitable in areast with very dence population...
The price betveen DVD and Blu ray will become closer together, so thi prediction bay be near the truth actually. Byt as has been said: "It is hard to predict, exspecially to predict future..." :-)
99% of the USA home broadband infrastructure could not stream anywhere close to BluRay level video and uncompressed PCM audio.
Anyone who thinks you could stream it over a 10Mbs connection is dreaming.
BluRay is designed for people who want the best picture and sound possible mostly movie lovers. If you are watching compressed rips of Bluray movies you don't care about video and audio.
Also it's worth pointing out, very few people actually have a true 1080p TV and receivers that will either decode DTS HD/Dolby HD or output 7.1 uncompressed audio let along the speaker setup for this.
While I admit that for some streaming is the way to go, for me, right now, Blu-Ray is the best. I say that because from what I've read Netflix downloads HD video, but you aren't getting HD Audio (True HD and DTS HDMA). Same with On Demand and using cable to download. If I'm wrong please enlighten me but that was the last I heard. Second, in order for me to stream HD content from Netflix, I need another apparatus, and have to connect it to the Internet. Either that means going wireless...which limits bandwidth...or running exterior cable from my office to my living room. I live in an apartment so I can't exactly go through the wall. That or pay to rent another cable modem for the living room to hook up the other cable outlet. I'd rather not. Finally, I've watched an On Demand HD movie and it is about as good as watching HBOHD or another premium movie channel. Neither live up to Blu-Ray in picture or audio quality. Someday, when our economy is better, and cost allows infrastructure to update to allowing more convenient and better quality HD Streaming, I'll definitely do it. For the next few years, I'll stick to external media (Blu-Ray and DVD).
Well.. Streaming really does have a long way to go to match the quality that is capable with blu-ray. That's not to say that the quality that is "perceived" by the viewer has a long way to go. All HD has to be encoded and compressed for streaming. Usually they use H.264 which is not a lossless format. So is there a difference? Yes/No/Maybe?
Technically: Yes
If you watch on a 19 inch screen: NO
If your TV is bigger than 42 inches (maybe)
The compression on my 61 inch TV from 7 feet away IS noticeable. On my 42 inch from 7 feet there is no perceived degradation of quality.
I think Blu-Ray is here to stay. It probably won't have the success that DVD did... but there is definitely going to be a market for it.
We all know that only a few consumers currently have the actual bandwidth capabilities to stream an HD movie. What happens when streaming becomes more mainstream and begins to eat up more and more of the ISP's available bandwidth? Already, we have ISPs putting bandwidth caps as a means to curb file sharing. What are they going to do to control bandwidth when the downloads become legit?
ISPs want to make as much money on as little bandwidth as possible. I think charging to raise bandwidth caps will be their next play in an effort to pry into consumers pockets. "You want to stream more than 5 HD movies a month? You'll be over your bandwidth cap. For an extra $20 a month, we can raise that cap..."
what is with people thumbing me down?! what on earth could possibly be considered bad about what i said? it seems to me that maybe this site needs to revise it's thumbing system.
I've always been saying DD is the future. That said physical media is NOT dead. Give it 5 years or so and it will be. Still I agree with the general consensus that anyone expecting to see huge jumps in sales or acceptance of Blu-Ray this year are dreaming.
Blu-Ray will overtake DD for the short term, but don't expect the lifespan of Blu-Ray to match DVD. Hell I'm upcoverting the few Blu-Ray's on my computer to 1200 through my computer already. I expect higher resolution standards to take hold soon enough and all those Blu-Ray players on the market now won't be capable of supporting those resolutions, even if the media can. Gonna be some very upset people.
All this aside, I'm sitting with a 100mbit connection and I'd still pick physical media over digital ANYDAY. If I'd ever want it digitalized, I'd rather do it myself, or get it as an option.
All this aside, I'm sitting with a 100mbit connection and I'd still pick physical media over digital ANYDAY. If I'd ever want it digitalized, I'd rather do it myself, or get it as an option.
+9.9999999999999 e730757346439
I can't express how much a prefer having a physical copy to put up on the shelf, even if I make a digital copy, and never use the physical copy again.
All this aside, I'm sitting with a 100mbit connection and I'd still pick physical media over digital ANYDAY. If I'd ever want it digitalized, I'd rather do it myself, or get it as an option.
You do realize that if it's on a DVD Blu-Ray or CD it is digitized.
It's just the means of storage and nothing more. I think this is what boggles me the most is that people fail to realize that the physical medium is of not important. SSD, HD, Disk....IT'S THE SAME THING!
Disks scratch (I've got kids...believe me, I know).
I'm upcoverting the few Blu-Ray's on my computer to 1200 through my computer already. I expect higher resolution standards to take hold soon enough and all those Blu-Ray players on the market now won't be capable of supporting those resolutions, even if the media can.
You're upconverting all the way from [1920x]1080 to [1920 or 2133x]1200? Does it make ANY difference or was that a typo?
I'm with everyone here on DD being the new 'popular format' once everyone has high-speed Internet without download limits. In the mean time you have to remember that BluRay is not limited to 720p/1080p video. Today's lab-tests for 4-layer disks will yield 100gb per disk and that's just the beginning. Yes, it means we'll need newer players if the format evolves but it's not physically limited to the 50gb disks we often buy today.
You do realize that if it's on a DVD Blu-Ray or CD it is digitized.It's just the means of storage and nothing more. I think this is what boggles me the most is that people fail to realize that the physical medium is of not important. SSD, HD, Disk....IT'S THE SAME THING!Disks scratch (I've got kids...believe me, I know).
Clearly when I wrote digitalized I meant digitally distributed or a "digital copy", as in a file that is downloaded, streamed, not sold with associated physical media etc. Being a comment to an article on digital distribution and on a site made (supposedly) for tech gurus I thought that it would need no further explanation. I appologize for being wrong.
And yes, discs do scratch, but HD's do crash. It's easier to put the discs away from the hands of children and avoid that kind of problems. Even if your disc scratches, you might lose an album, a movie or some data. However, when an HD crashes, you better have a good backup otherwise everything on it will be gone.
Unless you are someone that "needs" to have the best video and sound AND you have the equipment to use it, then by all means, spend your money on BluRay. If you are like most people who would just like to watch a movies without the need for the BEST picture and you like to save money then continue to use your DVD or DL service.
I will continue to use the DL service or my DVDs. BluRay is a dead technology
I have the following point of view...
1) I prefer to own a "real" physical copy of most of my media. So based on this Blu will do well for me. I basically purchase any new movies or TV shows on Blu at this point and only "re-buy" my favorites or if my DVD stops working. Again, I still prefer a physical copy.
2) As for Digital Downloads I think the key here is "streaming"... STREAMING is NOT ready for HD content, BUT... downloading the full copy and then playing it is ready for prime time. I already download a lot of media (that I already own) just for the convenience of it. Like having all my Futurama episodes on a master desktop that I can stream to any computer/TV in my home via my network.
If the companies would get over the "streaming" part of this digital download thing and start allowing the full download to the computer it could see a surge in acceptance.
Netflix is a good example... the quality of the streams sucks. Sure it's good for some and worse for others, but why not start downloading a pre-set number of shows or movies to my computer as soon as they're added to my queue???? That way, when I'm ready to watch something it starts instantly on my PC or through my network... and OMG, P2P might be very helpful in a system like that.
Sure there are some people that would have to wait a day or two to watch a full movie... but that's the price you'd pay to have it at the best quality and not have to worry about it stopping and starting every 10min due to limited bandwidth.
I guess my point is I like both... why I can't I simply buy a physical copy and be given full rights to transfer a copy of the movie to my PC... or in the reverse, if I buy a digital copy... why then can't I order or make a physical copy?
I leave with my own quote...
DRM is just like all the gun laws... it only effects the law abiding citizens... the criminals will always find guns and always defeat DRM. In the mean time, people who don't break the law are disadvantaged by the criminals either having far more guns or an honest person not being able to install "Red Alert 3" for a 6th time... while the pirate can install it as many times as he/she likes. Thereby creating a perfect environment for the honest person to WANT to become a criminal or pirate.
teknomedic has left a great quote.I totally agree with that. DRM is a foolish measure that only cripple the uses of something U paid for. So I buy video or music, but I can't hear or see it wherever I want. It's just not fair. Since the industry started freaking out about legal rights, I started collecting all my bill so if some day my CD scratches I can download it again, cause I've paid the right for the music once and I don't wanna pay that again. I support the artists and programmers, I don't steal them, but I don't them to steal me neither.
Thanks god, now there is some people in the industry that are AGAIN HEARING THE CUSTOMERS, and getting rid of DRM. And not trying to tell the customers what to buy, how to buy or how to use what they are trying to sell.
When does the "customer is always right" has been revoked?