Windows Phone will be the #2 mobile operating system by 2015, jumping ahead of Apple's iOS and lagging behind the current reigning champ, Google's Android.
Global market intelligence firm IDC claims that Android will seize 43.8-percent of the smartphone market share by 2015, followed by Windows Phone with 20.3-percent and Apple's iOS at 16.9-percent. Right now as of 2011, Android still claims 38.9-percent of the market while Symbian sits in the #2 spot with 20.6-percent.
"Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia's support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence," the group said in a press release. "Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011."
Thanks to the deal between Microsoft and Nokia, the Symbian OS will be phased out of the picture by 2015, nearly non-existent with a 0.1-percent market share. "This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing," the group said. "Still, Nokia's commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors."
Apple's iOS will remain "a force in the mobile phone market," and is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the 2011 – 2015 forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies. RIM's BlackBerry OS on the other hand is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system, but will eventually experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow throughout our forecast.
"The smartphone floodgates are open wide," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their 'talk-and-text' devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years."
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I find myself with difficulty accepting incredibly unlikely predictions from what equates to a two bit fortune teller.
The Elopcalypse has about as much chance in a substantial Windows Phone 7 market share increase as Tom's Hardware does in getting rid of spammers.
Won't happen. Why not? The world is still going to end in 2012.
OK so truth be told, I don't believe either case will happen. Android will still be on top.
Uh... the first word under the subtitle- yeah that says "Global". Of course WP7 isn't going to ever get close to 20% in the U.S., but it may in the world... Heck Android seemed like it came out of nowhere- so why couldn't WP7?
Windows 8 will tell.... but W7 phones have already lost out. It is certainly possible. I would buy a good quality Windows phone, if they ever come out with a true tablet/phone OS.
I'd go with RIM.
I see MS is dreaming again for another soon to fail project of take over another market, dominate the world policy. Windows OS only survived because of a monopoly and they were convicted of it too for all you MS fanboy deniers out there. Since the conviction MS works with NSA on their OS's. I'll stick with Linux or OS X.
The only other thing they have succeeded at is the Crapbox 360 that had a 50%+ failure rate at first and the only reason people stayed with it was they had spent all that money on overpriced DX9 games for it.
Long Live Open Gl, Open Cl and the likes.
This article paid for by Steve Balmer's desperation.
What utter nonsense. That anyone could claim to accurately predict the state of the mobile OS market in 2015 is total rubbish.
I say this prediction is not only going to come true, it is conservative. Windows mango and whatever comes next is going to ROCK AND ROLL! Say goodnight RIM, you are toast. So is iphone.
I see MS is dreaming again for another soon to fail project of take over another market, dominate the world policy. Windows OS only survived because of a monopoly and they were convicted of it too for all you MS fanboy deniers out there. Since the conviction MS works with NSA on their OS's. I'll stick with Linux or OS X.The only other thing they have succeeded at is the Crapbox 360 that had a 50%+ failure rate at first and the only reason people stayed with it was they had spent all that money on overpriced DX9 games for it.Long Live Open Gl, Open Cl and the likes.
Well said. I couldn't agree more.
it's not going to happen....windows is weak when it comes to mobile stuff....for example, take a look at how hard they failed with the zune and zuneHD
Keep dreaming microsoft, no way they are gonna pass android, ios. Even my Bada Os Phone is better over windows mobile.
Now this is more like it. Still not liking the fact that Android is on the top, but WP7 is a real force to be reckoned with.
I think this estimate boils down to one thing, can Intel manage to get the x86 Atom into the power budget of the phones or not. Why? Because it would be possible for Microsoft to enable tons of windows software to be run directly on the phones and the majority of devs like it easy - Imagine they make the same code & api's for both windows and the phone... If they get that to work this estimate might come true especially in the corporate sector.
This is moronic drivel and claptrap. There is no data that such a prediction could be based on.
I think IDC's Magic 8 Ball, which is obviously the source for this story, is out of calibration.
This is an accurate statement though. I mean really... the Apple OS only goes on Apple devices. Windows Phone 7 will go on a variety of phones and more carriers.