Epic's Mike Capps: Apps Are Killing Us
It's a scary time in the traditional games business claims Epic Games' Mike Capps.
One of the big themes spoken at ECGC 2011 this year was that Apple changed the game. It introduced the concept of high-quality entertainment that can be relatively small and cheap-- it can even be carried around in your pocket. Social gaming using the micro-transactions model also changed the industry's focus, proving that software doesn't have to be installed or even cost a dime up front. Now combine the two on iOS and Android and you have highly popular titles-- like FarmVille and Pocket Legends-- that are putting a dent in console sales.
At the conference last week, there was cause for concern based on the declining sales of Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 software over the last two years. What lies ahead? What will be the industry's primary focus? Cloud-based gaming? Social gaming? Both? Epic Games president Mike Capps recently expressed his concern about the industry's future, admitting that the situation has gotten scary. That in itself is scary given Epic has been around for decades and seemingly reigns king of engine licensing.
"We have not been this uncertain about what's coming next in the games industry since Epic's been around for 20 years," he said. "We're at such an inflection point. Will there be physical distribution in 10 years or even five? Will anyone care about the next console generation? What's going on in PC? Can you make money on PC if it's not a connected game? What's going on in mobile?"
Last week Mark Cerny said the market may be heading for another crash unless the next-generation of consoles makes its debut soon or the industry enters its next phase. His prediction was based on the fact that the industry focused on arcades in the 70s, the PC in the 80s, and the consoles in the 90s. The next stage was predicted to focus on downloadable, "cacheable" games, but Apple surprised everyone with the iPhone and its cheap apps. Now no one is really sure where the industry is going.
"Tons of really scary things," Capps said. "It used to be, 'Well, of course PlayStation 3 will be successful because PS2 was amazingly successful.' But can you say for sure that you know everyone's going to jump to the next generation? I sure hope so – I'm going to try to make some great tech that will make everyone want to. But it's scary."
Given the console market's revenue drop, it's no surprise that Epic worked night and day to get UE3 up and running on iOS and Android. The company is likely to sell more "units" of its $5.99 Infinity Blade fighting title than the $59.99 Bulletstorm first-person shooter on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3-- apparently that's the path consumers are now taking. It's also one of the reasons why local publishers like EA (Battlefield Play4Free), Fucom (Bloodline Champions) and SCEA (Free Realms on PC and PS3) are testing the free-to-play waters.
"If there's anything that's killing us [in the traditional games business] it's dollar apps," he said. "How do you sell someone a $60 game that's really worth it ... They're used to 99 cents. As I said, it's an uncertain time in the industry. But it's an exciting time for whoever picks the right path and wins."
What doesn't help are devices like Sony Ericsson's PlayStation-sanctioned Experia PLAY smartphone-- which features a slide-out gamepad-- blurring the line between smartphone and dedicated handheld gaming unit. The Motorola ATRIX blurs the line between netbook and smartphone with the "Lapdock" accessory. Nvidia is even shooting for a pocket-sized device with the content of a console and the technological innovations of a PC.
Strap on your seat belt... the ride is going to be a scary-yet-exciting one.
- Apple's Next Multitasking iOS Leaked on Video
- iPhone 5 to Have Dual-core CPU, 8MP Camera
- Going, Going, Gone? PSP Go Production Ceased
- BlackBerry PlayBook Arrives to Fight iPad, Xoom
- Company Takes Orders For Custom LED Tables
- Portal 2 Release Disrupts Educational System
- Xbox, Verizon Investigating TV Channels
- Court to Debt Collectors: Stay Off Facebook
- Audi's LED Tower Features 16 Million Variations
- Intel Porting Android 3.0 ''Honeycomb'' to x86
- ARM Predicts First Cortex-A15 Devices Late 2012
- Audi Heads to Sea With Trimaran Yacht
- Numi: The Smartest Toilet Around
- Oil Rigs Transformed Into Ocean Cities
- Scientists Discover Strong Magnetic Effect Of Light
- Meet the Space Saving Origami Phone Concept
- Battery Concept Features USB Interface
- Disaster Relief Beds Made From Cardboard
- Real-Life Hover Lamps Float in Mid Air
price drops on AAA new release games perhaps imminent??
PC gaming is dead, consoles suck, nobody plays single player games anymore, blah blah blah. Did I cover all the predictable trolling? :-)
One of the problem is bad marketing. Tegra 2 phones are well capable gaming platforms however, as of now, there is no game that can tap into the power. The wireless companies in Vancouver are advertising the Tegra 2 phone as a dual core phone but not as a graphically capable phone. If one buys a phone to play game, and if one tries to sell phone as a gaming platform, one must advertise the product's ability to do good games but also accelerate game selection while advertising them.
PC gaming is dead, consoles suck, nobody plays single player games anymore, blah blah blah. Did I cover all the predictable trolling? :-)
Ya, pretty much. Quite impressive, that probably sums up about half the comments that would've been posted (and probably still will be posted), making them even more redundant and unnecessary then they would've otherwise been. Well done sir.
In a down economy, don't read too much into declining sales as a precursor for industry movement. Maybe there just isn't as much disposable income for wants like games, or there hasn't been as much compelling software.
"but Apple surprised everyone with the iPhone and its cheap apps"
Apple: ruining the boundaires between markets and generally just fucking shit up. I vote them as most irritating company. ever.
I think a lot of those app games are going to people who wouldn't normally play console games anyways. They aren't taking away dollars from consoles, they are introducing new players to gaming. What is needed is some good apps that help those new gamers find games they would like on consoles, probably through making a good, short app game that leads into a bigger story.
But it all boils down to making a good game. People buy good games, but it's a lot harder to pony up $60 if you unsure if the game is worth it.
There is also the fact that all the people who want a console and have the means to buy it probably have indeed purchased one. Consoles are quite aged at this point so sales are mostly coming from games, rather than hardware at this point.
I'm still waiting for Diablo 3. I don't see how Apple is going to change that...
Quality AAA titles seem to make great sales, start there perhaps?
His name is ironic.
Isn't EPIC the creators of Infinity Blade's game engine? (Unreal 2 Engine?)
They complain, yet they perpetuate...
EDIT - Unreal 3 engine
The high price of games has been a serious complaint among gamers for years, even decades. Only a fraction of the gamer market is willing to pay $60 for a game, and many use the price as an excuse (albeit, a lame one) to pirate the game. But here we are today with the game publishers still acting surprised that people don't like paying $60 for, more often than not, a sloppy and/or unoriginal program.
Is it really such a surprise that people buy more $1-$5 games than $60 titles? Especially so when the cheaper games tend to expand on more original ideas and provide just as many hours of single-player entertainment.
For the most part, I'm happy with this change in direction in the market. We're back in a position where a couple of people can work out of their home and produce fun, entertaining products, without requiring scores of employees and tens of millions of dollars. We're also seeing gaming being adopted by a surge of people who never would have considered it before, which in turn is bringing new social acceptance to gaming of all kinds.
Change happens, and it's not always bad. The gaming style of the last decade isn't going to die, but it's probably going to have to find a smaller niche to fit in, just like old gaming styles of decades prior. And in the future, we get to look forward to even more unique and entertaining ideas.
The consumer decides how much a game is worth, not the developer. I would bet if games returned back down to $30 a title their sales would pick up considerably
How about trying new subscription schemes based on rentals?
Hmmm..... $1.00 vs $60.00. When you are on a tight budget it is a no brainer!!!
There is also the fact that all the people who want a console and have the means to buy it probably have indeed purchased one. Consoles are quite aged at this point so sales are mostly coming from games, rather than hardware at this point.
I agree, but the guy from EPIC seems to be saying they've seen declining software sales as well. I think there are some amazing games coming out this year. Off the top of my head, I can't see why gamers like myself (and I assume that the majority of PS3/XB360 gamers are "hardcore") would not be buying software as of late. If I were to buy an game app for my Iphone I would only supplement my current gaming on the console. I can't see the majority of PS3/XB360 gamers replacing their console gaming with cell phone gaming.
yes, apps are killing gaming industry... The fact that games are overpriced and offer only couple hours of gameplay, and are so buggy that require a patch the very next day after release has nothing to do with it. Let's blame the apps, the weather, pretty much everything else but the developers.
That's why I am playing games that are a few years old over and over again, because of the apps, not because they were great games at that time... and I can not find anything that compelling in today's offerings.
/sarcasm
I think a lot of those app games are going to people who wouldn't normally play console games anyways. They aren't taking away dollars from consoles, they are introducing new players to gaming. What is needed is some good apps that help those new gamers find games they would like on consoles, probably through making a good, short app game that leads into a bigger story. But it all boils down to making a good game. People buy good games, but it's a lot harder to pony up $60 if you unsure if the game is worth it.
Agree completely. Cheap apps are not a negative - the only markets they cannibalize are their own.
Adapt now or become irrelevant alla Blockbuster!
"Micro Games" are a fad. Once people get tired of 20 or more of them that all are pretty much the same (Zynga is horrible at this) people will migrate back...
It's not just the cost but what you get for the cost. These games coming out have 8-12h single player time and you've cleared the game, then what do you? Who wants to play the same mission over when you already know it. Opened ended games like GTA at least give you good value, you can play for weeks and not complete everything or just play around and interact with the environment. Some have shoddy multiplayer, they don't put enough servers up, take forever for patches, abandon the game after a year and there are no more servers or patches to play on, riddled with cheaters and hackers.
In a down economy, don't read too much into declining sales as a precursor for industry movement. Maybe there just isn't as much disposable income for wants like games, or there hasn't been as much compelling software.
This pretty much sums up why traditional gaming has seen lower sales. Lots of people lost their jobs, got pay cuts, or graduated and can't find jobs. When it comes down to it, $59.99 + tax is something you can pass on when your trying to eat or pay rent. Notice he said the past 2 years. He simply forgot that globally, everyone had a slam, and certain things have to be cut back. As for apple, they revolutionized nothing or brought anything to the table. I was playing games on my cellphone before they ever brought the Iphone, Ipad or whatever one wants to point too. I do not view apple as an innovator, merely a refiner of already good ideas.
Its not that the apps are cheap - its that there are cheap free apps that can be played quickly, are entertaining, and some even have good replay value. Why would I pay $60 for a single "cinematic" video game often time only at beta level quality on release and has 5 hours of playtime and no replay value.
Pay to play games like MMORPGs are doing good if you look at WoW, Rift and the others, ok maybe not all of them but the ones that do understand the addiction and are exploiting it are doing well.
Perhaps invest in making quality games that people will actually enjoy playing for more than a Saturday afternoon, and recommend to their friends etc.
But even then, the players are what makes a game reach out. If nobody was playing Team Fortress 2, it wouldn't be such a hit, but people just keep playing it, even after it's been out for so long!
Out of all of them, EPIC should know, Unreal Tournament classic is still up and running for probably more people than their latest installment...
In the end, all it is, and Nintendo knows this, gameplay > graphics. Spend less money on the graphics and more time making sure the game is actually a game, the people buying it will play it, and because they're playing it more will buy it, and then more.
Sigh... I've officially ceased all gaming except old school console stuff... So sick of the social/multiplayer/MUST BE ONLINE aspects... Who wants to interact with real people while they game? Not I!
Come on! I've tried few times to play first person shooters with a gamepad - the experience just sux and first person shooters are stupid mostly.
The problem is not Apple. The problem is that the companies make stupid crappy games. There are so few really original games that do it right. Most are just copies/clones of older ones.
And also of course sales in the past two years will decline and the reason is not the world crysis. If most gamers buy a console released in 2005/2006 how many years will they play it before it gets old and boring?
There are too many game developers and too little good titles. That's why sales will decline. Bad products = bad sales.
We've heard the same story from ECGC all week that cloud gaming and micro games are the next fad. ECGC is run primarily by Epic and devs friendly to Epic. Epic is now putting out micro games.
For those of you who can't put the pieces together, ECGC is one long commercial for Epic and their future ventures. They want you to think this is the future because it's their future. And who is really surprised? Most of these dev teams are the same ones that left PC gaming for consoles, why wouldn't they run off to the next cash cow?
Epic doesn't determine the future of gaming, and they especially can't comment at all on consoles since they're the new fish in the console industry. If they want to piece together why they aren't selling games on consoles anymore, they might want to take a look at how that industry runs and realize they can't just release games that focus on graphics on hardware that's over 5 years stale and expect everyone to consume it. You can't depend on graphics when it comes to consoles.
"How do you sell someone a $60 game that's really worth it ... They're used to 99 cents."
is probably the most incorrect thing said so far. Most games have been $50+ new off the shelf for 30 years, that's what people were used to. If they aren't used to it anymore, it's because the industry slipped up. The problem isn't that you're selling a 50 dollar game and they're selling a one dollar game, the problem is that your 50 dollar game is only worth one dollar. If you would release games that are WORTH $50 then people will pay it.
But it's fine. Epic isn't really worth much more than reselling their engines anyway. If they think just because they're failing everyone is, they're as overconfident as their name implies. Companies like Nintendo and Square/Enix can re-release 10 year old games and still sell a million, they aren't going anywhere.
The obvious correction:
make me a game that's worth playing, single player, with an actual STORY instead of a random fps. Think GTA4, where the whole game is a story, no matter in what order you play the missions. World freedom is key. What good are those fancy graphics when you don't have anywhere to go but a narrow one way path? Make me a x-wing type game, an actual space sim, not an "out of the cockpit" view. make it so every keyboard button controls something. those are the games we are waiting to buy. Sales will pick up sooo fast! There's hardly a game worth buying these days.