Tablets Perhaps Just A Blip in Time, Says Microsoft

tablets as they are now, over sized cellphones, WILL DIE.

when a real os, like windows or osx (sorry linux, you are good, but not for normal business world) and basicly function like a computer for when you arent at a computer, or better yet, a pc monitor that you dock into a keyboard, than take with you when you are done. when that happens, you will see a large segment of the pc market swich over.

for a total switch over though, the pc market needs to be so fast that even if the hardware is 8-16 times slower, you are only talking about second or two difference. it would be the difference between crysis at 300fps or 40fps, both framerates are VERY playable, but the 300 is nicer than the 40.

when pcs get that powerful, (they arent) i can see a vast majority caring more about style than function, or more along the lines of portability over function.

i can tell you if my pc was ultya portable like a tablet, it wouldnt leave my side.

The very first tablets were just like that.. with full sized OS's and they all failed. Miserably.




I have always loved that argument pov. Based on that stance.. Big Screen TV's would have failed as well.. After all, they *are* just oversized 13 inch CRT TV's, lol.

Sometimes, more size, is better.. Even on the same platform. Apple found it.. Credit is due, I believe.

You are so wrong, dude. Tablets are and won't ever be PCs. They have the potential to be an all purpose, carry-everywhere device that fill almost all mobile needs and if they come in the future with more static and lower power displays and longer battery life they could also replace the ereaders. Why carry 4 pound laptop around if all you need is 1 pound thinner than a book device?

My vision is that tablets will actually evolve into a complete replacement for smaller laptops.
Asus Eee tab is a good example what might happen next. And also Android is a real OS.

- Why is Linux unable to perform in the business world? It's the most secure desktop OS out there, something I would say is important to an enterprise. Operating costs are *very* low indeed. Oh, and most distro's are also far more stable. Full fledged support is available at very reasonable prices. And lack of apps? If the platform sees significant uptake, commercial software will be released in a Linux flavour as well. Till then, native apps and Wine ports will do nicely.

- Please, tablets that pretend to be desktops have failed, fail and will fail. Leave desktop stuff to desktops and tablet stuff to tablets.

On topic: MS is right in this case. In the enteprise world, tablets will never achieve anything - too expensive and too useless to get work done. And in the consumer gadget market? Tablets will do great there - until another shiny thingie comes along.

How about a tablet display for a good PC? When you are within access of a supporting PC, the tablet is simply a portable and convenient display device for all that computing power and storage goodness.

Wait - didn't they do that at Xerox PARC last century?

Whether or not tablets live or die, Windows 8 ARM will breathe new life into netbooks & transformer tablets with battery pack keyboards they will be able to last longer, & still be cheap.

Have you seen minority report (that not-so-great movie)? In one of the scene I still remember vividly, there was a man with an "interactive" newspaper. My belief is that tablets will fulfill needs of such markets - a4 sized, interactive information tool.
If tablets are destined to replace anything, it will replace blank paper (like a4, a5, b5 etc) BEFORE it replaces desktops(which I believe will always remain as the IT tool of choice for the masses)

I sure hope not. Paper is still so vastly superior it almost hurts. We currently have two paper replacements, but both are flawed:

- E-ink: great battery life, no glare, no eyestrain and all that jazz, but complex figures or vivid colors are still impossible.

- LCD: vivid colors and complex graphics, but limited battery life and eyestrain.

And both suffer from poor annotating features, high initial purchase prices, poor environmental records (assuming you compare with FSC paper of course) and just a lack of... feel.

Ok so I'm a highschool teacher. Kids love the tablets. The fact that a high priced exec does not like them is meaningless. He should get out of his office and move about amongst the people. Or better yet he should be fired and they should hire someone who gets it. Kids love the tablet. They can game on it, use the camera, surf the internet, text their friends, etc.... This market alone will keep Apple in the black on this product.

The only thing preventing tablet sales from skyrocketing is the battery life. Well.... ATT pricing for 3G internet is also a problem.

Lack of keyboard? Plug one to USB;
Lacking a large screen? Use the HDMI port;
Prefer Windows, Linux or OS X? Try an x86 tablet.

i wouldn't bet my future on an opinion of someone who has no idea what he's talking about.

they failed because they were new, and the touch screen added next to nothing.
and i call them over sized cellphones, because that is what they are. lets assume that apple will be the first to incorporate a real os into an ios device. it will handle real programs, allong with a system to run apps too.




i walk into a home or a business, what do i expect to see on the computer?
for me, its either windows, or osx, i will never expect to see linux on a computer, ever. not saying its bad, but its just not as convient as the other options.

on a server, on, linus is something i would expect, but a home pc, or a business, no.

and like i said above. they were basically a windows xp with a touch screen, nothing built to take advantage of a touch screen. now with ipad, ipod, and others, people know what to do with a touch screen.

imagine using basic business software, such as word or excel, and having allot of the more common things assigned to gestures. take my parents as an example. they cant fo the life of them remember a 2 key button press like ctrl+c and than ctrl+v but give them something with 2 or more fingers and they remember it easily.

with tablets being powerfull enough to handle most work non render, all it would need is a keyboard and mouse dock, and it would be a work station, take it off and its now a portable workstation. this could become the ideal replacement for a laptop/computer if a real os is integrated.

I can't see tablets becoming desktop replacements for quite a while. That's not to say that the category is going to die as there are many great uses for tablets that haven't even been fully explored. But most day to day tasks on a computer require a keyboard (web browsing, email, data entry, gaming). To me it seems like eventually all computer screens will come with touch sensitivity and they will become another input device along side the keyboard and mouse. Tablets could become the norm if we all use docking stations / stands and bluetooth to connect our mouse/keyboard. Even then, this wouldn't beat a laptop for on the go computing. I'm sure that all of these devices will converge / merge / take functionality from one another.

Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, once the 2nd largest computer corporation in the world, once said the equivalent about the PC. He was wrong too.

http://www.snopes.com/quotes/kenolsen.asp

Hubris kills.

I think tablets are a fad. They are not as portable as a phone or as necessary. They are not fun to use for any long term work or play like a stationary larger screened computer or console is.

I think smartphones are going to make Tablets obsolete. New technologies will see to it.

What if your smartphone had a micro projector in it. You set it on a desk it projects a 20 inch screen, its cameras captures your hand movements and enable a touch interface on the desk.
So whenever you can sit around and have a flat surface you have a large screen to work on or play on. Now with this being available would you want a tablet?

Or why even have tablets in the future. hy would I need a tablet if I can hook up a wireless external portable display? A full color HD resolution touch enabled display that you can roll up into a tube and lasts for 10s of hours on a charge and receives a wireless signal from your smartphone. That is in the realm of possibility within the next decade.

Apparently you didn't read the article you are citing good sir! Olsen wasn't speaking of the PC, he was speaking of a computer that would control the home.

Apple can claim all the revenue all the want, but I personally will stick with what actually gets work done.

Well,i believe NETBOOKS are just a blip in time, not the tablet.

Tablets aren't going to die. They'll be a niche - not a laptop or smart phone replacement. I already have a new top end smart phone with 4 inch screen, and I just cannot justify paying $500+ for the same thing in a fatter package.

For the same price, I can get a lap top that is way more powerful. Or for significantly less price I can get a netbook which is just as portable as a tablet - yet still has better performance. And I already have a great new smart phone with fun touch screen technology and vastly superior mobility over a tablet.

Tablets provide a specific combination of features, performance, and price - but can be beaten or tied in 2 of those 3 areas by each of the other the 3 common techs - smart phone, netbook, laptop. People already have laptops and smart phones. I think tablets will remain as a sort of high end netbook. I think the laptop / smart phone combo will be far more prevalent for the next 5+ years.

I think the nook color is the only really interesting tablet because of it's netbook-level price. I assume the only reason it's price is so low is that B&N is not making money on the hardware, intentionally keeping the price low so they can bring in all the money on book purchases. I don't think there are any hardware manufacturers that can afford to not make money tablets - thus tablets can never really get the price down to a level to beat netbooks. Hence, tablets shall be stuck in the expensive netbook category - for those with money to blow, or just have to have a huge smart phone.

the tablet is just a stepping stone. so is 3d... both are cool to have but not innovative from a functionality standpoint. i wanted an ipad 2 really bad but i can't justify spending that much on an accessory... it's like buying a watch that costs 1000$, it performs flawlessly, it looks amazing, it will probably help your confidence enough to get a few numbers, but in the end it is merely an accessory. it won't help you any more-so than the alternatives but it is so sexy...

In all honesty tablets could do really well. But, they would need a few things in my opinion for that to happen. A windows version that allowed them to actively sync with your nearby home pc and use it like a cloud server more or less, either via wifi or bluetooth. Bluetooth connectivity for cordless mice and keyboards, or the ability to accept voice commands via headset or integral mic, or bluetooth headset. And Wireless recharging, where all I have to do is set the thing down near a charging terminal or be within range of one to recharge it.

Here's a newsflash: most people are not "on-the move". Most people who own laptops do not regularly take them out of the house (or they take them to the office and back). Even at home they use their laptops in a specific place, plugged in the mains of course.
Yet laptops still persevere. Why?

this debate will not be valid until a tablet with a real OS like windows comes out. i think dell already released one or will soon

I know this thread may be over, but I still want to comment because none of the above matches my observations.

I'm a Windows user who's also been using an Archos 101 Android tablet for four months now.

I can safely say the tablet is not a fad. The form factor fits very nicely into visual consumption workflows (such reading books, the web or other content, viewing images and maps, and viewing video.

With this gadget, reading the web in the living room or train or bed is very very comfortable. I love slouched reading! I've been reading back and forth between a current Star Trek novel and older text of novels from years ago without carrying additional text.

I started with an Android Phone. I loved it but thought reading didn't feel "right". Tablets offer that missing real estate I so badly desired.

Not all tablets are alike. For me I found something cheap and light, reminiscent of the Padd in a Star Trek episode. There are jobs to which it is better suited than either cellphones or laptops or full desktops and I prefer the tablet for those tasks.

Nothing as unhandy as a tablet!
Typing goes slow, no hardware keyboard, does not sit in your lap or on an airplane seat table; low battery life, high manufacturing cost, not upgradeable, not productive.

Netbooks and smartphones are the future!

Smartphones with 480p resolution and the processing power for games and movies, and battery life of 10hrs, netbooks with mobile core i7/i5 CPU calculating power, and radeon 5650 capable graphics.

slates are on the rise, only to be replaced by what is practical, not what is good looking!

Nothing is as unhandy as android-class smartphone... it just feels too small for reading. Really - try reading a book on smarthpone. And you cannot comfortably lay in bed with netbook and read either.

That the place that tablet fits very well; it's big enought to read a book on it and light enought to stay in your hand for more than an hour. And I can surf the internet on it, however not in as comfortable way as on laptop.

I do believe that netbooks and tablet lines will eventually merge; my tablet has external keyboard in leather case, making it very comparable to netbook in form with it connected. And I can imagine netbook with detachable keyboard too.

@skyline100

Netbooks aren't dead, not really.

They've simply advanced to where they're merging with the ultraportable laptop market. The processors which power them are faster, more effiecient and better at 3D than the the Atom variants and they're getting better and better.

Sure, you can still find the (non-Atom-powered) model with the lower power with a long battery life for simple tasks, but the term 'netbook' can no longer always be synonymous with an under-performing ultraportable laptop.

@Iser

I think this would be likely to a limited degree on the lower-end netbook segment, a netbook with a detatchable screen which functions as a tablet (I think I've seen a few models like this already), but I think tablets are really an interim transition to something even more portable and relevant, maybe Apples iScroll:

http://www.maclife.com/article/fea [...] 17_iscroll

I would probably buy something like that before I bought a tablet. Tablets only found relevancy through Apple's great PR marketing and fanbase and alot of customers with too much money (and a little smartphone envy no doubt) on their hands who needed a new 'Apple'-style to outclass their rivals. :-)

Ugh, tablets have been around forever. Nearly as long as the modern notebook.

They where never popular, until a company that people buy stuff from because they think if they have their products they are a rebel and nonconformists... errr... come out with a tablet.

Kinda... interesting if you ask me, yet it makes me lose faith in the current generation.8

Tablets will cannibalise some netbook sales, as they already are doing because they can provide the same basic functionality at a higher level of portability than a netbook and in a more small screen friendly interface. But until tablets are able to run full pc software, expect people to keep their desktops / 15" or 17" laptops.

This is exactly the reason why I have trouble taking Microsoft seriously these days.

They build operating systems like Windows 7 which are "optimised for touch", and go on about how tablets are going to be the next best thing since sliced bread and then they announce stuff like this.

It makes Microsoft seem like they don't even believe in their own products anymore.