What appears to be more likely is that AT&T makes its decision solely based on the iPhone's popularity and how many people seem to want one. Because of the high demand, AT&T appears to be finding out ways to charge as much as possible for every little feature.
Amen. I know AT&T has to make money somehow, but this isn't the way. At any rate, people will find ways around their switch banning, and it's not unreasonable to assume that this will make more people actually take the jailbroken route, if AT&T keeps on trying to keep people from doing stuff they can do for free.