Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

I've recently read an article about the "flat" PDA market (sorry, I
can't recall where... Wired, or Slashdot, perhaps?) and how PDA's are
going to disappear in the next few years, as the functions they
perform become more successfully combined with cell phones, etc.

Personally, I don't think so - I think that personal computers are
going to disappear as PDA's get more powerful and diverse, and start
to take over the functions that PC's now perform. My Zire 71 has more
memory and a faster processor (and better programs!) than the old
Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10 years ago! PDA CPU's are going
to be in the PIII processing power range in a few years. What's
missing right now is a better user interface - how about virtual
screens that you wear like glasses and a completely spoken input
system? Not impossible, IMHO.....

Anyways, I know I'm preaching to the converted in this forum, but I'm
just fishing for some thoughts from the community - what do YOU think?

ECM

Archived from groups: alt.comp.sys.palmtops.pilot,comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

"ECM" <thedeepabyss@whoever.com> wrote.
>
> Anyways, I know I'm preaching to the converted in this forum, but I'm
> just fishing for some thoughts from the community - what do YOU think?
>

I did an editorial on this subject recently:
http://www.brighthand.com/article/ [...] _Handhelds

-Ed


--
Editor-in-Chief
http://www.brighthand.com
News, Views, and "Hands-On" Reviews of Handhelds of All Types

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

While intrepidly exploring comp.sys.palmtops.pilot, ECM rolled
initiative and posted the following:

> I've recently read an article about the "flat" PDA market
> (sorry, I can't recall where... Wired, or Slashdot, perhaps?)
> and how PDA's are going to disappear in the next few years, as
> the functions they perform become more successfully combined
> with cell phones, etc.

A market stall because everybody's happy with what they have
doesn't mean that the market is dead. Consider how many of us are
happy with the watch we have on our arm, and yet there's a whole
case of them at Target.

> Personally, I don't think so -

I don't think so either.

> I think that personal computers
> are going to disappear as PDA's get more powerful and diverse,
> and start to take over the functions that PC's now perform. My
> Zire 71 has more memory and a faster processor (and better
> programs!) than the old Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10
> years ago! PDA CPU's are going to be in the PIII processing
> power range in a few years. What's missing right now is a better
> user interface - how about virtual screens that you wear like
> glasses and a completely spoken input system? Not impossible,
> IMHO.....

This depends on what you mean by "disappear". If you mean that the
desktop CPU will be incorporated in a handheld unit, but that the
monitor, keyboard and mouse, and network card will connect with a
separate base station. You may be right. There' already a company
trying to market a WindowsXP unit that functions in this way.


If you mean that the entire desktop computer concept will
disappear, I think you're missing the mark. The fact that my m515
is more powerful than the 286 I wrote my honor's thesis on years
ago doesn't mean that I'd really rather work on the small screen of
my m515 - even if my PPK is just about as functional as my
desktop's keyboard.

IMHO, my Palm handheld is an adjunct to my desktop or laptop. It
cannot replace either in terms of total functionality without
becoming as big as either of them.

After all, have you ever considered doing image desing or photo
manipulation on a handheld?

--
Derek

Until you spread your wings, you'll have no idea how far you can
walk.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

ECM wrote:
> My Zire 71 has more
> memory and a faster processor (and better programs!) than the old
> Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10 years ago! PDA CPU's are going

uhm. Your old pentium 75 had a better keyboard, a much larger screen,
and much more storage memory than your zire. I won't think of writing a
thesis on a zire....


cheers,
piesse

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

While intrepidly exploring comp.sys.palmtops.pilot, piesse rolled
initiative and posted the following:

> ECM wrote:
>> My Zire 71 has more
>> memory and a faster processor (and better programs!) than the
>> old Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10 years ago! PDA
>> CPU's are going
>
> uhm. Your old pentium 75 had a better keyboard, a much larger
> screen, and much more storage memory than your zire. I won't
> think of writing a thesis on a zire....

While you'd win on keyboard and screen, my Pentium 100 came with a
1GB harddrive and 16MB of RAM. A Zire 72 has more RAM and with a
1GB SD card ties for storage.

Scary to think that my old Winders 95 machine was top of the line
at one point.

--
Derek

You can do anything you set your mind to when you have vision,
determination, and an endless supply of expendable labor.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

"ECM" <thedeepabyss@whoever.com> wrote in message
news:93903fca.0404291124.5b458ce0@posting.google.com...
> I've recently read an article about the "flat" PDA market (sorry, I
> can't recall where... Wired, or Slashdot, perhaps?) and how PDA's are
> going to disappear in the next few years, as the functions they
> perform become more successfully combined with cell phones, etc.
>
> Personally, I don't think so - I think that personal computers are
> going to disappear as PDA's get more powerful and diverse, and start
> to take over the functions that PC's now perform. My Zire 71 has more
> memory and a faster processor (and better programs!) than the old
> Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10 years ago! PDA CPU's are going
> to be in the PIII processing power range in a few years. What's
> missing right now is a better user interface - how about virtual
> screens that you wear like glasses and a completely spoken input
> system? Not impossible, IMHO.....
>
> Anyways, I know I'm preaching to the converted in this forum, but I'm
> just fishing for some thoughts from the community - what do YOU think?
>
> ECM

The personal computer will not be replaced by the PDA because the gap between the
capabilities will remain. The PDA is becoming more powerful but so is the desktop and the
laptop. They all have their place.

Adam

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 06:48:46 +0100, Adam Helberg wrote
(in article <2Nlkc.14965$eZ5.9960@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net> ):

[snipped]

> The personal computer will not be replaced by the PDA because the gap
> between the
> capabilities will remain. The PDA is becoming more powerful but so is the
> desktop and the
> laptop. They all have their place.
>


Personally I think that's a pretty bold statement and one that I think the
next decade will prove completely wrong (how's that for a bold statement as
well).

Once the power problem has been solved, and that to me is the really big
problem, I think we'll see convergence of personal devices. In ten years the
desktop and laptop will be gone for all but specialist uses and smaller
connected devices will be the norm.

No idea what they'll look like but I seriously doubt I'd be typing this
message on anything that looks like an iBook in 2014.

Andy

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

ECM wrote:
> Anyways, I know I'm preaching to the converted in this forum, but I'm
> just fishing for some thoughts from the community - what do YOU think?

I think that you have to cut through the hype. I've been reading about
this "convergence" so much lately that I'm becoming sceptical. Phone
companies are, of course, eager to sell us on SmartPhones. While the
sales figures look impressive at first sight I wonder if people are just
upgrading their phone for the "coolness factor" or if they really make
use of the SmartPhone-specific functions. (My own mobile is five years
old, its battery life is still excellent and I see no reason to upgrade
at all.)

Personally, I think a good phone needs to be small to be pocketable,
while a PDA needs to be a bit larger than a phone to be really useful.
In other words: for me a good phone will be too small to be used
effectively as a PDA. That all said, a modern phone (SmartPhone or not)
functions well enough for basic PIM functionality, which is the only
type of functionality that most users really need.

Just my 0.02 euro.


Regards
-Laurens

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

While intrepidly exploring comp.sys.palmtops.pilot, Andy Mulhearn
rolled initiative and posted the following:

> Once the power problem has been solved, and that to me is the
> really big problem, I think we'll see convergence of personal
> devices. In ten years the desktop and laptop will be gone for
> all but specialist uses and smaller connected devices will be
> the norm.
>
> No idea what they'll look like but I seriously doubt I'd be
> typing this message on anything that looks like an iBook in
> 2014.

I don't know about that. I think that in the next 10 years, the
traditional "Desktop" will be replaced for all but "power users and
gamers" and everyone else will move to a laptop.

It's possible that in 2014 a laptop chassis will have a removable
PDA unit, but I'm not interested. Most of the data I have on my
desktop (or laptop) is NOT stuff I want to be carrying around with
me.

--
Derek

Then there was the guy who loved his wife so much, he almost told
her.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

Hello,

AH> ...The PDA is becoming more powerful but so is the
> desktop and the laptop. They all have their place.

AM> Personally I think that's a pretty bold statement and
> one that I think the next decade will prove completely
> wrong (how's that for a bold statement as well).

I'm with Andy H. on this one. Because what I'm looking for
in a palmtop is atypical (e.g. an 80-column screen for use
as an SSH terminal) at least one friend laughs, saying "You
don't want a palmtop, you want a laptop that fits in your
pocket!". A palmtop like that would meet about 80% of my
mobile needs (Vs. about 60% if I ditch a few "requirements"
and pick up a Zire 21). It would be great to get away from
carting a heavy, bulky laptop/notebook computer every day as
I do now, but realistically I can see that there are
applications where a larger screen and keyboard are needed
(even if the processing power were equivalent).

Desktop computers are a pet peeve of mine. I don't object
to them in principal, but the realisation seems to leave a
lot to be desired. I predict that your average desktop
computer will continue to be a hideous, bulky energy-hog
with plenty of unnecessary (all-to-often moving) parts. This
prediction is based on the fact that there has been plenty
of opportunity to fix them before now, but people seem to
have a very blinkered idea about what you can put on a
person's desk.

Laptops don't make good desktop replacements, not least
because many of them seem to be designed so that they'll
keep trying to charge the battery even when it's full (this
ruins the battery). Docking stations (for laptop or PDA)
might get around the screen & keyboard limitations, but I
know that many offices prefer the convenience of having a
machine dedicated to each desk (ideally one that can be
bolted down). That way, Joe's office doesn't become unusable
just because he's off sick and his system unit is in his
jacket pocket!

- Andy Ball

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

ASB> I'm with Andy H. on this one.

Doh! I meant Adam Helberg. Sorry Adam.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 13:04:48 +0100, Andy Mulhearn wrote:

> On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 06:48:46 +0100, Adam Helberg wrote (in article
> <2Nlkc.14965$eZ5.9960@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net> ):[snipped]
>
>> The personal computer will not be replaced by the PDA because the gap
>> between the
>> capabilities will remain. The PDA is becoming more powerful but so is
>> the desktop and the
>> laptop. They all have their place.
>
> Personally I think that's a pretty bold statement and one that I think
> the next decade will prove completely wrong (how's that for a bold
> statement as well).

I think the OP is right that they all have their place, though I think
it's for "human" reasons, not simply technical capability.

> Once the power problem has been solved,

Now *that's* the bold statement. If Moore's law keeps going, and signs are
that there's mileage in it yet, then PDA size processors and memory will
be more than powerful enough. Powering these electronics is another matter
altogether. Despite all the investment that's been poured into battery
technology, advances in capacity move at a rate that is far behind the
demand for more power. It's far from clear that the power problem is
solvable at all in the near term time frame - fuel cells hold the most
potential, but there's still a lot of work to be done before you get PDA
sized ones that are reliable, and easily recharge/refuelable. I saw an
interview with a mobile phone company exec who was bemoaning the fact that
the next gen phones they wanted to build were impossible - they couldn't
reconcile the desired feature set with power availability. He was saying
the market is basically going to be unable to add some features (mostly
WiFi type stuff) to the devices, unless there are some big leaps in power
technology.

> and that to me is the really big
> problem, I think we'll see convergence of personal devices. In ten years
> the desktop and laptop will be gone for all but specialist uses and
> smaller connected devices will be the norm.

There I disagree. I could replace my desktop now with a laptop that's more
powerful than it, but I wouldn't want to. I *want* a full size keyboard,
and a large screen. Shrinking the devices is all very well, but ergonomics
will rule at some point - people need to be comfortable using these
things.

> No idea what they'll look like but I seriously doubt I'd be typing this
> message on anything that looks like an iBook in 2014.

Despite all the advances in technology, a desktop computer looks much the
same now as it did in 1984. What's inside the box has changed beyond all
recognition, but the physical dimensions on the machine are broadly the
same now as they were then, as people are still about the same size. Why
will the next 10 years be so different?

What would be nice would something pocket size, that makes use of flexible
materials to unfold to a 14" screen when you're at a desk, or is usable at
pocket size when you're on the move. That way you could gain portability
without losing ergonomics. The problems to be solved before we get that
sort of device are more than just packing more transistors onto a chip
though, so I'm not sure it'll happen by 2014. Here's hoping though....

Mike.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:55:03 +0000, piesse wrote:

> ECM wrote:
>> My Zire 71 has more
>> memory and a faster processor (and better programs!) than the old
>> Pentium 75 I wrote my thesis on just 10 years ago! PDA CPU's are going
>
> uhm. Your old pentium 75 had a better keyboard, a much larger screen, and
> much more storage memory than your zire. I won't think of writing a thesis
> on a zire....

Indeed. A modern PDA will often have more memory that my old 486 (circa
1991), more storage with a decent SD/CF card, a faster CPU, and a
comparable screen res (some of them do 640x480). Still, I was happy
writing college work on my 486. The key factors are screen/keyboard/chair.
That's why desktops aren't going away any time soon.

Mike.

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

Andy Mulhearn <unxmully@netcomuk.co.uk> wrote:

> Once the power problem has been solved, and that to me is the really
> big problem, I think we'll see convergence of personal devices.

Short of someone discovering some safe and as of yet unknown or
uncontrollable chemical reactions, don't count on battery technology to
advance THAT much. Fuel cells aren't all they're cranked up to be -- the
only big savings are likely to be in manufacturing costs and recycling woes.
Then we're down to the other side of the equation -- power consumption.
This *will* rise, despite more efficient parts eventually becoming a
priority. Look at laptops -- even though the new CPU's and other components
are designed more energy-efficient than before, they're overtaken by Moore's
law, and laws of nature. If you increase the clock speed by 4x while at the
same time decreasing the energy use to half as much per cycle, you'll double
the overall energy consumption. That's why laptops today have fans, and
have been renamed notebooks due to liability claims after lap burns.

Only if we consumers stop demanding "more, more!" can the devices get a
chance to catch up on the power side too. And yes, that will happen, as
surely as people have stopped demanding that their TV set also plays videos,
act as a stereo, and has a built-in lamp. Sooner or later, consumers will
want devices that do one job, but one job well, instead of the Swiss Army
Knife approach we now see, and which is common to any new technology.

Regards,
--
*Art

Archived from groups: comp.sys.palmtops.pilot (More info?)

Andy Ball <ball@not.valid> wrote:

> I'm with Andy H. on this one. Because what I'm looking for
> in a palmtop is atypical (e.g. an 80-column screen for use
> as an SSH terminal) at least one friend laughs, saying "You
> don't want a palmtop, you want a laptop that fits in your
> pocket!".

Substitute ssh with serial 9600N81 and you're even more secure.
And need a *terminal* that fits in your pocket. I'm really surprised that
no-one has made that before.

Regards,
--
*Art