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Which will be released first?




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With Hector Ruis saying Barceona will ship in "late summer" - lets call it September for sake of argument, this is getting quite close to the Late 2007 timeline for Penryn (the 45 nano shrink of Conroe/Woodcrest/Merom/etc)

Given that Intel has shown and demoed working 45 nano silicon, pulling Penrym in to the same time frame as Barcelona is not out of the rhelm of speculation.

I think it is unlikely, because while the design is clearly almost good to go, the logistics of ramping a new process is a tough road to go.

What do you think?

Rational arguments only please, evidence, links, that sort of stuff.

Maybe we can have a Baron free thread? 8O 8O 8O

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Penryn coming before K10 just sounds awkward. It would be an embarassment to AMD and a surprise from Intel, as they're in no hurry to release 45nm before they've ramped up.

The more important questions would be the relative performance characteristics of the competing CPUs and how well the supplies meet resulting demand.

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Penryn coming before K10 just sounds awkward. It would be an embarassment to AMD and a surprise from Intel, as they're in no hurry to release 45nm before they've ramped up.

The more important questions would be the relative performance characteristics of the competing CPUs and how well the supplies meet resulting demand.



From a completely non technical perspective, I would have to agree.

In terms of cost, for Intel to begin shipping 45nm before AMD gets its competative 65nm out the door is lost profit. Intel has already sunk its R&D costs into 65nm, and as long as their 65nm Uarch is out performing AMDs, they can continue to profit and attempt to regain market share. To release 45nm prior to AMD releasing K10 (except by a week or 2 for premptive PR) would be throwing away potential profit. Addtionally unless Intel is trying for a seriuos technical image PR coo, the more time they spen with Penryn in the lad, the more time they have to detect/minimize any flaws in the design/manufacturing process. So there just doesnt seem to be any great pressure to get 45nm out the door, unless AMD has been stringing everyone along with current availability dates and starts filling the channel/OEMs with K10 in the very near future vs 2008

There is another side though, and that is die space. Intel will be able to increase yields/wafer and thus profitabilty at the smaller node. With the trend towards 4 and possibly 8 cores, increasing yields per wafer becomes increasingly attractive, but since it is unlikely that Intel will cut dual cores from its line up anytime soon, the impetus to transition to 45 nm is not as strong as it could be on that issue

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Just a shrink? I thought Penryn had High K Metal Gates?

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This is a good point, Intel still needs to milk out some from 65 nm to gain over the depreciation.

But on the flip side, I don't think Intel is anxious to hand over the performance crown either....



I agree. I would not be suprised (though I doubt we would ever know for sure) if Intel had Penryn ready to go by end of Q2/early Q3 but held it back until K10 was released. Keep the crown, maximize profits at 65nm, and try to steal some or AMDs K10 release thunder. Just a thought with absolutely no evidence to support it. Other than Intel striving to clean the egg of its face after 3 years in AMDs performance shadow. And netburst. :wink:

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sorry but isn't this amd endless posting getting boring - how about a qx6700 post? its one afte another of the same stuff
water cooling?

overclocking your e6300 to 4ghz with 3v?

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They may do an initial low volume release into server just to take the wind out of the sails to Barcelona.



That certainly seemed to be the game they were playing with the release prices of C2D after AMD announced its price cuts for pre C2D release. As well as the release of C2Q.

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From what I have heard none of Intel's 45nm fabs are up yet. Of course D1D doesn't count because it is never down.

It would be a shallow release unless they have a real Production fab online and who knows when the 45nm fabs are fully tooled and qual'd.

It really doesn't ever seem there is a lot of strategy in the releases of new products per se. I have never heard of a company sitting on a process that is qual'd unless they decide not to go with it period. As far a feet dragging I seriously doubt that is going on, but they could be being a little more picky on what rev. will be the 1st release.

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Ummmm, the code name is not Penrym put Penryn.

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Major, every Intel Development fab goes to full production. They get the recipe right for all of the other Fabs to fallow. This means that D1D is currently producing 65nm chips and doing all of the development work for 45nm parts.

I'll even bet they are doing the initial 32nm testing by now. I think I remember they will do immersion at 32nm since no one can get EUV off the ground.

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I've mentally come up with a couple of scenarios...
1. Intel waits for AMD to launch, then releases ES chips Works for them, IFF they have the goods to beat AMD's benches, plus allows time to start emptying the supply chain of the existing c2d stock.

2. Intel steals the thunder from AMD's launch, and releases ES chips several weeks BEFORE the AMD launch.

Either case, this is all playing silly buggers with my upgrade plans...

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45nm Xeon coming 1 qtr early is not a rumor. See page 3 of "Server Platforms Group Technology Update" by Kirk Skaugen, VP and GM, Intel Server Platforms Group. This presentation was given on Feb 21. I found this on the Intel Investor Relations page.

I still think, for AMD's sake, that Barcelona is coming before Penryn.

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What nails? Nothing left to bite. Right now, I know what case I'll get. Probably what RAM, and Vista ultimate for OS.

MB? either sli or xfire...
GPU? Patiently waiting.
CPU? Patiently waiting.
PSU? Depends on all of the above.

Think that I'll just get an opty 180 for the duration...

OK, I'm just a wee person. But if I was a buyer for HP or DELL, I'd be losing hair.

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What nails? Nothing left to bite. Right now, I know what case I'll get. Probably what RAM, and Vista ultimate for OS.

MB? either sli or xfire...
GPU? Patiently waiting.
CPU? Patiently waiting.
PSU? Depends on all of the above.

Think that I'll just get an opty 180 for the duration...

OK, I'm just a wee person. But if I was a buyer for HP or DELL, I'd be losing hair.



I am finished with my upgrade cycle for now --- will live with the QX6700 and X6800 until Nehalem -- then I will re-assess between Shanghai and Nehalem. Most likely though I will stick with the 45 nm high-k CPUs, those are likely to be more fun to play with.Ahhh!! You're gonna have to live with those boat-anchors til 45nm? :tongue: Poor baby. hehehe j/k 8)

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Major, every Intel Development fab goes to full production. They get the recipe right for all of the other Fabs to fallow. This means that D1D is currently producing 65nm chips and doing all of the development work for 45nm parts.

I'll even bet they are doing the initial 32nm testing by now. I think I remember they will do immersion at 32nm since no one can get EUV off the ground.



I don't think they're producing a lot of for sale parts at D1D (if any). They've been in charge of development for Penryn and the coupled chipset process (remember that Intel designs chipsets for all their chips). I don't believe D1D is in charge of flash dev. D1D h