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Thread : Guesstimate of computers in 20 years
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After reading the "who can list the greatest computer??" thread it's interesting to think about how big an upgrade my current computer is over the first computer I owned 20 years ago, a commodore 128.
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C’est magnifique, mais ce n’est pas la guerre.
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I want to say that some of the things you listed can't be possible, but seeing as how those are famous last words, I'll just say that with Moore's Law effectively shot to hell, I know absolutely nothing and just hope that time and unforseen circumstance allows me to live into my late 30's to see the advancements and come back, dig up this post and either say yea or nat. |
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I think that this is an interesting take on the future of comupters, but this industry is a fickle and unpredictable one. You know that little quip about "never needing more than 640K of RAM" - that wasn't quite so true, now was it? Having said that the industry is unpredictable, you can't really fit its progression to a linear curve as you have - I'm sure that the industry would deviate from the line all over the place.
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its neat to try and consider what 20 years might have in store, and I think it'll be a little more than just straight linear interpolation of statistics.
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U win some, the rest u smoke
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I can find most of that quite plausible. However what will prob happen before 20years is up is the PC architechture will TOTALLY change.
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Actually, I am more amazed at how little the actual "user experience" has changed in the past twenty or more years. Let's face it, we're all using fancy-ass, super-fast Xerox PARCs with vintage 1970s technology: Keyboards, mice and windowing-OS's are almost thirty years old. If you go back thirty years before that, computers took up entire buildings and were programmed by hard-wiring!
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Dude, you are an immense dork with way too much time on your hands.
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Sold - Subject to contract.
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Dragon's Lair was the beginning of my ongoing objection over graphics excellence vs. gameplay.
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The sad part is that even if your predictions come true, it'll still take windows 30 seconds or more to load. |
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I just cant believe that you have the time to calculate all those predictions,
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If I had to guess, computer technology will continue to grow at an exponential rate (i.e. technology becomming faster at a faster rate) until there is one new innovation related to computer technology that changes everything else. Rinse and repeat.
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This is one of the most open questions ever; the most approximate answer is "WHO KNOWS?!?!?". IT's much easier to guess what will the world be like after 20 years, will this humanity still exist or not, what will the sea level be etc. Especially now that the silicon process is slowly facing a dead end, nobody really knows, nowever, we all notice some slowdown in the progression; there is no more doubling the frequency (& performance) every year like 6-7 years ago and even though Intel and AMD are pushing more than ever,the greatest chip in 3 years, Core2, only managed ~30%+ compared to 1 year old AMD designs. |
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It's also interesting to think about what new technologies have become mainstream between my C128 and current pc:
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