Cupertino (CA) - Research data from Gartner and IDC show Apple is battling Acer for the third spot in US computer system sales for the second quarter. As always, estimates from Gartner and IDC differ slightly, but they are enough to place Apple ahead of Acer by 65,000 units in Gartner’s estimate, while IDC data shows Apple just behind Acer by 2,000 units.

We have to wait for the official second quarter reports from vendors to know more (Apple will report earnings Monday). Cupertino-based gadget maker’s exceptional growth should continue into the upcoming quarter since its continues to target upwardly-mobile middle class citizens resilient to economic downturn - meaning they still have bucks to spend.

Both research firms concluded that PC shipments are steady, but warn there are no guarantees that growth can be sustained in the upcoming quarter. Some cracks have already appeared, forcing vendors to decrease average selling prices (ASP) at their expense in order to stimulate consumers and enterprise customers into purchase. Notebook shipments were the primary growth driver, both in the US and internationally, helped by aggressively decreased ASPs.

US market outlook

Second quarter US shipments reached 16.5 million units (IDC: 17 million), a 4.2% increase (IDC: 3.6%) from the same quarter a year ago. Gartner points out that US shipments "actually accelerated during the quarter," but warns that "this acceleration appears to have been achieved at the expense of revenues as vendors appear to have cut prices in response to the economic woes."

Home notebooks continue to drive the US market growth due to aggressive pricing. Gartner warns that ASP declines with notebooks "were greater here than in other segments." Although several mini-notebooks were introduced during the quarter, Gartner says they accounted for less than 3% of US mobile PC shipments.
Big business responded to economic concerns by shrinking IT budgets and lesser unit orders. Gartner says that some pro users with tight budgets pushed desktop sales due to lower deployment costs with desktops than that of mobile PCs.

Apple overtakes Acer to become third-largest PC vendor in the US?

Dell remains top US vendor with 31.9% share of the market (IDC: 32%), up from 29.7% (IDC: 29.6%) from a year-ago quarter. The company shipped an estimated 5.2 million systems (IDC: 5.4 million). Dell continues to see double-digit annual growth (Gartner: 11.9%, IDC: 12.1%) and is likely to continue the trend with aggressive channel and retail expansion. Dell recently launched a series of service centers located within Wal-Mart stores to compete with Best Buy’s Geek Squad.

HP pushed estimated 4.2 million units (IDC: 4.3 million) in the quarter, coming in second with 25.3% market share (IDC: 25.1%) in the US. The company’s recovered from a slower first quarter, with 5.6% growth (IDC: 5.9%), a little above the US industry average. Gartner says that HP’s inventory issues now appear "resolved."

The third place depends on who you ask. Gartner placed Apple on the third spot in US shipments for the quarter, ahead of Acer by 65,000 units. IDC puts Apple in the fourth slot, lagging behind Acer by just 2,000 units. We will know who is right when Apple reports its earnings Monday morning.

Gartner estimates Apple shipped 1.4 million PCs (IDC: 1.3 million) between April and June. The company is estimated to have increased its US share of the market by 2 percent, grabbing 8.5% (IDC: 7.8%), up from 6.4% a year ago (IDC: 6.2%). Mac sales grew 38.1% (IDC: 31.7%), far outpacing the industry average. Mac sales to consumers and education institutions head of the back-to-school were the strongest driver for Apple.

Apple’s outstanding growth defies economic situation but is not without logic since it aims buyers who are immune from the economic slowdown. "The mindshare of that company is significant. Not only among consumers, but small-to-medium businesses and even enterprises are looking at Apple hardware," said David Daoud, research manager at IDC. He estimates that Apple will sustaining growth in the upcoming quarters, citing strong more PC switchers and third quarter back-to-school shipments as the primary growth driver. According to the analyst, Apple is seeing notable growth in Japan where it shipped 130,000 Macs in the first quarter of 2008.

The remaining two of the top five US vendors are Acer (1.3 million units) and Toshiba (907,000 units, IDC: 888,000) who grabbed 8.1% (IDC: 7.8%) and 5.5% (IDC: 5.2%) respective shares of the market.

Preliminary U.S. PC vendor unit shipment estimates for Q2 2008 (in thousand units)

Source: Gartner (July 2008)

Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and X86 servers. Acer data includes Gateway’s consumer shipments and Packard Bell shipments.

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, July 16, 2008

Notes: Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold. PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, Ultra Portables, and x86 Servers and do not include handhelds. Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Data for Acer includes shipments for Gateway starting in Q4 2007, and only Acer data for prior quarters. This reflects the legal status of the companies, which merged during the fourth quarter of 2007.

Worldwide market outlook

Worldwide PC shipments in the second quarter reached 71.9 million units (IDC: 70.6 million), a 16 percent increase (IDC: 15.3%) from the second quarter a year earlier. Both research firms warn that current market resilience doesn’t mean growth trend will continue in the upcoming quarters. Gartner says that economic instabilities have already resulted in steep ASP declines in US, Europe Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. "The industry could ultimately see a significant wave of consolidation if stronger vendors continue to press their pricing advantage," said Mika Kitagawa, principal analyst for Gartner’s Client Computing Markets group.

Although current sales are maintained, IDC says economic woes may jeopardize future growth. "The steady growth, despite the pressure on consumer finances, reflects the increasingly important role of PCs within personal technology, and steady improvements in price and design," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, warning that "economic pressures are mounting and PC market growth is expected to decline over the next year. Given the current economic fundamentals, demand could remain depressed in the coming quarters if economic pressures continue, even with sustained price decreases," he said.

HP maintains number one slot with growth rate that exceeded the industry average in the worldwide market. Dell followed in the second place, largely helped with its indirect channel and retail expansion and 40 percent year-over-year growth in mobile shipments for two consecutive quarters. Acer, Lenovo and Toshiba round up the top five PC vendors on a global scale.

HP remains world leader in PC shipments

HP sold 13 million PCs shipped worldwide (IDC: 13.3 million) helped by extensive product refreshes. The company grabbed 18.1% market share (IDC: 18.9%), with growth for the quarter slightly down at 17.1% (IDC: 16.8%). Despite growth decrease, HP’s growth rate still exceeds the industry average in the worldwide market, and its growth rate is little above the industry average in the US.

Dell is second, with 11.2 million PCs sold (IDC: 11.6 million), representing 21.9% growth (IDC: 21.4%) and 15.6 % share of the market (IDC: 16.4%). Rest of the top five includes Acer (6.7 million units, IDC: 7 million), Lenovo (5.6 million) and Toshiba (3.1 million) with 9.4% (IDC: 9.9%), 7.8% (IDC: 7.9%) and 4.4% respective market share. Apple is still missing from the top five global PC vendors list.