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I came across this article and the plots took me by surprise, in this
form it looks like a clock ticking down the finally minutes of film
cameras life.
http/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/technology/daily/graphics/digitalCameras_121904.html
I got interesting in just what the data was showing so I plotted it out
in a number of ways.
http/www.sewcon.com/photos/loss.gif
The first of my plots is very telling, it is a more or less straight
line pointed towards zero sales.
The second plot shows that on a percentage bases the loss is
accelerating.
The last plot if pretty simple, just how many units less are sold each
year, this is pretty much constant at 3 million less each year.
I had assumed that the loss would be more of a exponential decay, where
the percentage loss would be about the same from year to year, so that
the number loss in terms of the absolute number of units sold would be
less each year.
I have to think this drop will slow down soon, otherwise it will reach
zero before 2008.
I don't believe these number include disposable cameras, which are
normally counted as film and not cameras.
So the question is will the clock keep ticking at the same rate?
Scott
I came across this article and the plots took me by surprise, in this
form it looks like a clock ticking down the finally minutes of film
cameras life.
http/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/technology/daily/graphics/digitalCameras_121904.html
I got interesting in just what the data was showing so I plotted it out
in a number of ways.
http/www.sewcon.com/photos/loss.gif
The first of my plots is very telling, it is a more or less straight
line pointed towards zero sales.
The second plot shows that on a percentage bases the loss is
accelerating.
The last plot if pretty simple, just how many units less are sold each
year, this is pretty much constant at 3 million less each year.
I had assumed that the loss would be more of a exponential decay, where
the percentage loss would be about the same from year to year, so that
the number loss in terms of the absolute number of units sold would be
less each year.
I have to think this drop will slow down soon, otherwise it will reach
zero before 2008.
I don't believe these number include disposable cameras, which are
normally counted as film and not cameras.
So the question is will the clock keep ticking at the same rate?
Scott